Unified market view

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

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Research boundary

This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.

Decision state

Hold: Efficient price

Hold

Model edge Yes ↑ +1%

Confidence 56%

Price at model run 66¢ Model run: 8/10/2026, 18:01:43

Live best ask 66¢ Live update: 8/10/2026, 19:01:42

Model gpt-5.4-mini

Price is near fair value with no strong mispricing; orderbook and recent moves do not justify a decisive entry.

Watch triggers

Best ask 0.66 matches current price
Recent 24h/1d drift lower
Tight spread but limited edge

Why not now

Price is near fair value with no strong mispricing; orderbook and recent moves do not justify a decisive entry.

Revisit when

Best ask 0.66 matches current price · Recent 24h/1d drift lower · Tight spread but limited edge

Execution guard

Price 66¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $246,259. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.

Summary

Updated at 8/10/2026, 19:01:42

Signal

Sell

Best ask ?

66¢

Volume (24h) ?

$134,483

Liquidity ?

$246,259

Open interest ?

—

Spread ?

1¢

Depth imbalance ?

-36.1%

Momentum ?

-3.0%

Volatility ?

0.2%

Trend slope ?

-0

Reasons

Momentum turning down
Ask depth outweighs bids
Spread within 2¢

Rule notes

Momentum = price change over the selected interval; negative means price falling.
Depth imbalance compares total bid size vs ask size; negative means asks dominate.
Spread is best ask minus best bid; smaller is easier to enter/exit.

Orderbook

Outcome Yes

Bids

65¢ 883.03

64¢ 14,253.83

63¢ 5,237.16

62¢ 13,418.94

61¢ 2,470

Asks

66¢ 19,455.35

67¢ 19,713.54

68¢ 21,472.71

69¢ 10,313.01

70¢ 6,221.03

Price history

Interval: 6h

8/10/2026, 18:37:10 65.5¢

8/10/2026, 18:39:10 65.5¢

8/10/2026, 18:41:23 65.5¢

8/10/2026, 18:43:24 65.5¢

8/10/2026, 18:45:09 65.5¢

8/10/2026, 18:47:10 65.5¢

8/10/2026, 18:49:24 65.5¢

8/10/2026, 18:51:07 65.5¢

8/10/2026, 18:53:22 65.5¢

8/10/2026, 18:55:09 65.5¢

8/10/2026, 18:57:10 65.5¢

8/10/2026, 18:58:10 65.5¢

Prediction history

Full history

Yes ↑ +1% 8/10/2026, 18:01:43

Price is near fair value with no strong mispricing; orderbook and recent moves do not justify a decisive entry.

Related whale flow

All trades

No related large trades in the current 24h cache.