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Opportunity Markets

Daily Polymarket intelligence: model edge, whale flow, and breaking movers in one decision loop.

Updated at 08/03/2026 17:30:06 UTC+00:00 Edge Fresh data · 40/44 · 08/03/2026 12:04:53 UTC+00:00

Today intelligence

Start here: each card explains why the market deserves attention now.

44 markets 40 fresh models 100 large trades 1 movers
Model watchlist Miami Marlins ↓ -100%

Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets

Marlins are priced at the ceiling with a 0.001 spread; there is no positive expected value to buy at current levels.

Action: SellAttention 96
Large-trade cluster $450,932

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

9 notable trades in the 24h tape. Check whether whale flow agrees with the model view before acting.

24h flowMarket detail
Model watchlist Yes ↓ -8%

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?

The current price appears above my estimated probability of a qualifying announcement, so the better trade is against Yes.

Action: SellAttention 87
Model watchlist Yes ↓ -8%

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?

Market pricing appears a bit rich versus the strict resolution standard and the recent price drift favors No.

Action: SellAttention 86
Model watchlist Yes ↓ -7%

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Yes is slightly cheaper than a pure coin-flip view might suggest, but the edge is small and policy-path uncertainty is high this far out. The tight spread and balanced book do not justify an aggres...

Watch triggerAttention 83
Model watchlist Jessica Pegula ↓ -3%

Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Alexandra Eala

Pegula appears slightly overpriced versus a modestly lower fair value; momentum is extended and liquidity supports fading the current ask.

Watch triggerAttention 68
Use this board in three moves Scan the markets that moved, attracted flow, or show model edge. Open detail pages to check model reason, tape, liquidity, and history. Act on Polymarket or subscribe to Telegram when the setup is worth watching.
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Market analysis

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44 markets

Title Yes price Edge 24h volume Liquidity Updated at End date
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets
100¢
Miami Marlins ↓ -100% Sell Action: Sell Fresh data 08/03/2026 12:04:50 UTC+00:00
$315,606
$335,588
08/01/2026 23:28:52 UTC+00:00
08/08/2026 20:10:00 UTC+00:00
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?
13.8¢
Yes ↓ -8% Sell Action: Sell Fresh data 08/03/2026 12:01:41 UTC+00:00
$115,104
$55,881
08/03/2026 17:28:52 UTC+00:00
08/07/2026 23:59:00 UTC+00:00
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
37¢
Yes ↓ -8% Sell Action: Sell Fresh data 08/03/2026 12:01:59 UTC+00:00
$77,249
$52,880
08/03/2026 17:28:52 UTC+00:00
08/15/2026 23:59:00 UTC+00:00
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
43¢
Yes ↓ -7% Hold Watch trigger Fresh data 08/03/2026 12:01:14 UTC+00:00
$219,566
$488,745
08/03/2026 17:28:52 UTC+00:00
09/16/2026 00:00:00 UTC+00:00
Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026?
26¢
Yes ↓ -5% Hold Hold: Risky tape Fresh data 08/03/2026 12:03:41 UTC+00:00
$1,007
$17,417
08/03/2026 17:28:52 UTC+00:00
01/01/2027 05:00:00 UTC+00:00
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?
70¢
Yes ↓ -4% Hold Watch trigger Fresh data 08/03/2026 12:01:52 UTC+00:00
$81,718
$78,712
08/03/2026 17:28:52 UTC+00:00
08/31/2026 23:59:00 UTC+00:00
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
27¢
Yes ↓ -4% Hold Watch trigger Fresh data 08/03/2026 12:02:44 UTC+00:00
$56,769
$67,946
08/03/2026 17:28:52 UTC+00:00
01/01/2027 05:00:00 UTC+00:00
Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Alexandra Eala
0.1¢
Jessica Pegula ↓ -3% Hold Watch trigger Fresh data 08/03/2026 12:00:16 UTC+00:00
$1,475,286
$421,320
08/03/2026 17:28:52 UTC+00:00
08/09/2026 21:00:00 UTC+00:00
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
21¢
Yes ↓ -3% Hold Watch trigger Fresh data 08/03/2026 12:00:35 UTC+00:00
$946,297
$1,264,372
08/03/2026 17:28:52 UTC+00:00
12/31/2026 00:00:00 UTC+00:00
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
13¢
Yes ↓ -3% Hold Watch trigger Fresh data 08/03/2026 12:00:29 UTC+00:00
$505,182
$624,146
08/03/2026 17:28:52 UTC+00:00
08/31/2026 00:00:00 UTC+00:00
National Bank Open: Michael Zheng vs Miomir Kecmanovic
56¢
Michael Zheng ↓ -3% Hold Hold: Risky tape Fresh data 08/03/2026 12:00:41 UTC+00:00
$313,865
$183,323
08/03/2026 17:28:52 UTC+00:00
08/09/2026 15:00:00 UTC+00:00
National Bank Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Shuai Zhang
67¢
Yulia Putintseva ↓ -3% Hold Watch trigger Fresh data 08/03/2026 12:01:07 UTC+00:00
$282,499
$247,291
08/03/2026 17:28:52 UTC+00:00
08/10/2026 14:00:00 UTC+00:00
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?
89¢
Yes ↓ -3% Hold Hold: Risky tape Fresh data 08/03/2026 12:01:21 UTC+00:00
$234,948
$75,128
08/03/2026 17:28:52 UTC+00:00
08/09/2026 23:59:00 UTC+00:00
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
24¢
Yes ↓ -3% Hold Watch trigger Fresh data 08/03/2026 12:01:27 UTC+00:00
$124,100
$311,223
08/03/2026 17:28:52 UTC+00:00
09/30/2026 00:00:00 UTC+00:00
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?
9¢
Yes ↓ -3% Hold Watch trigger Fresh data 08/03/2026 12:02:30 UTC+00:00
$70,453
$61,308
08/03/2026 17:28:52 UTC+00:00
08/15/2026 00:00:00 UTC+00:00
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?
70¢
Yes ↓ -3% Hold Watch trigger Fresh data 08/03/2026 12:02:22 UTC+00:00
$58,533
$91,938
08/03/2026 17:28:52 UTC+00:00
08/14/2026 23:59:00 UTC+00:00
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
35¢
Yes ↑ +3% Hold Watch trigger Fresh data 08/03/2026 12:02:37 UTC+00:00
$35,411
$211,289
08/03/2026 17:28:52 UTC+00:00
09/30/2026 23:59:00 UTC+00:00
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
51.9¢
Yes ↓ -3% Hold Watch trigger Fresh data 08/03/2026 12:02:51 UTC+00:00
$27,560
$401,553
08/03/2026 17:28:52 UTC+00:00
10/31/2026 00:00:00 UTC+00:00
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
21.5¢
Yes ↓ -3% Hold Watch trigger Fresh data 08/03/2026 12:03:19 UTC+00:00
$12,021
$191,394
08/03/2026 17:28:52 UTC+00:00
10/31/2026 00:00:00 UTC+00:00
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
82.6¢
Yes ↓ -3% Hold Watch trigger Fresh data 08/03/2026 12:03:32 UTC+00:00
$5,766
$70,648
08/03/2026 17:28:52 UTC+00:00
12/31/2026 00:00:00 UTC+00:00
Canadian Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Nuno Borges
25¢
Aleksandar Kovacevic ↓ -2% Hold Hold: Risky tape Fresh data 08/03/2026 12:00:22 UTC+00:00
$296,990
$188,689
08/03/2026 17:28:52 UTC+00:00
08/10/2026 14:00:00 UTC+00:00
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
57¢
Yes ↓ -2% Hold Hold: Efficient price Fresh data 08/03/2026 12:01:34 UTC+00:00
$136,945
$273,907
08/03/2026 17:28:52 UTC+00:00
12/31/2026 00:00:00 UTC+00:00
Fed rate hike in 2026?
68¢
Yes ↑ +2% Hold Hold: Efficient price Fresh data 08/03/2026 12:02:08 UTC+00:00
$63,945
$246,773
08/03/2026 17:28:52 UTC+00:00
12/09/2026 00:00:00 UTC+00:00
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
84.7¢
Yes ↓ -2% Hold Hold: Efficient price Fresh data 08/03/2026 12:03:05 UTC+00:00
$18,137
$70,738
08/03/2026 17:28:52 UTC+00:00
12/31/2026 00:00:00 UTC+00:00
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves
2.5¢
Washington Nationals ↓ -2% Hold Hold: Efficient price Fresh data 08/03/2026 12:04:36 UTC+00:00
$326,379
$147,534
08/02/2026 19:59:59 UTC+00:00
08/09/2026 17:35:00 UTC+00:00
Mubadala Citi DC Open: Taylor Fritz vs Rafael Jodar
63¢
Taylor Fritz ↑ +1% Hold Hold: Efficient price Fresh data 08/03/2026 12:00:47 UTC+00:00
$380,816
$412,461
08/03/2026 17:28:52 UTC+00:00
08/09/2026 18:30:00 UTC+00:00
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
26¢
Yes ↑ +1% Hold Hold: Efficient price Fresh data 08/03/2026 12:03:48 UTC+00:00
$81,245
$72,490
08/03/2026 17:28:52 UTC+00:00
01/01/2027 05:00:00 UTC+00:00
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
49¢
Yes ↑ +1% Hold Hold: Efficient price Fresh data 08/03/2026 12:02:57 UTC+00:00
$35,773
$64,650
08/03/2026 17:28:52 UTC+00:00
12/31/2026 20:00:00 UTC+00:00
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
66¢
Yes ↑ +1% Hold Hold: Efficient price Fresh data 08/03/2026 12:03:13 UTC+00:00
$12,108
$331,268
08/03/2026 17:28:52 UTC+00:00
10/04/2026 00:00:00 UTC+00:00
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
45¢
Yes ↑ +1% Hold Hold: Efficient price Fresh data 08/03/2026 12:03:25 UTC+00:00
$8,006
$278,821
08/03/2026 17:28:52 UTC+00:00
11/03/2026 00:00:00 UTC+00:00
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
56¢
Yes ↑ +1% Hold Hold: Efficient price Fresh data 08/03/2026 12:01:00 UTC+00:00
$336,097
$571,646
08/03/2026 17:28:52 UTC+00:00
09/16/2026 00:00:00 UTC+00:00
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles
99.8¢
Philadelphia Phillies → 0% Hold Hold: Efficient price Fresh data 08/03/2026 12:00:54 UTC+00:00
$310,839
$9,857
08/03/2026 17:28:52 UTC+00:00
08/09/2026 17:35:00 UTC+00:00
Canadian Open: Matteo Berrettini vs Mariano Navone
69¢
— Data gap —
$144,079
$262,643
08/03/2026 17:28:52 UTC+00:00
08/10/2026 14:00:00 UTC+00:00
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
76¢
Yes → 0% Hold Hold: Efficient price Fresh data 08/03/2026 12:02:15 UTC+00:00
$64,906
$87,182
08/03/2026 17:28:52 UTC+00:00
08/31/2026 23:59:00 UTC+00:00
National Bank Open: Diane Parry vs Kayla Day
81¢
— Data gap —
$367,031
$346,091
08/03/2026 17:28:52 UTC+00:00
08/10/2026 14:00:00 UTC+00:00
Plovdiv 2: Yanaki Milev vs Oriol Roca Batalla
66¢
— Data gap —
$597,774
$219,368
08/03/2026 17:28:52 UTC+00:00
08/10/2026 08:00:00 UTC+00:00
Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
39¢
Boston Red Sox → 0% Hold Hold: Efficient price Fresh data 08/03/2026 12:03:55 UTC+00:00
$734,072
$953,350
08/02/2026 21:58:52 UTC+00:00
08/09/2026 23:20:00 UTC+00:00
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres
16¢
San Francisco Giants → 0% Hold Hold: Efficient price Fresh data 08/03/2026 12:04:03 UTC+00:00
$630,392
$211,838
08/02/2026 21:58:52 UTC+00:00
08/09/2026 20:10:00 UTC+00:00
Warsaw: Katarzyna Kawa vs Linda Fruhvirtova
37¢
— Data gap —
$649,826
$213,345
08/03/2026 14:58:51 UTC+00:00
08/10/2026 08:00:00 UTC+00:00
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros
1.2¢
Texas Rangers → 0% Hold Hold: Efficient price Fresh data 08/03/2026 12:04:09 UTC+00:00
$531,379
$141,355
08/02/2026 20:58:51 UTC+00:00
08/09/2026 18:10:00 UTC+00:00
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets
100¢
Miami Marlins → 0% Hold Hold: Efficient price Fresh data 08/03/2026 12:04:16 UTC+00:00
$383,877
$397,656
08/02/2026 20:28:52 UTC+00:00
08/09/2026 17:40:00 UTC+00:00
Canadian Open: Jaume Munar vs Rinky Hijikata
100¢
Jaume Munar → 0% Hold Hold: Efficient price Fresh data 08/03/2026 12:04:24 UTC+00:00
$354,957
$497,894
08/02/2026 20:28:52 UTC+00:00
08/10/2026 14:00:00 UTC+00:00
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays
100¢
St. Louis Cardinals → 0% Hold Hold: Efficient price Fresh data 08/03/2026 12:04:30 UTC+00:00
$484,133
$339,203
08/02/2026 20:24:52 UTC+00:00
08/09/2026 17:37:00 UTC+00:00
Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
100¢
Boston Red Sox → 0% Hold Hold: Efficient price Fresh data 08/03/2026 12:04:44 UTC+00:00
$1,444,389
$3,141,170
08/02/2026 03:28:52 UTC+00:00
08/09/2026 01:10:00 UTC+00:00