Yes ↓ -4% 10/5/2026, 00:07:20
The model estimates Yes below the roughly 21% market price, given the narrow event definition and limited time remaining, but geopolitical tail risk leaves substantial uncertainty.
Unified market view
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Model direction
Model leans lower
Hold: Efficient priceExecution state
Needs confirmation
Model edge Yes ↓ -4%
Confidence 52%
Price at model run 21¢ Model run: 10/5/2026, 00:07:20
Live best ask 22¢ Live update: 10/5/2026, 02:43:09
Conservative Kelly reference — Unavailable · this model version needs at least 30 resolved samples, Brier score ≤ 0.25, and a lower Brier score than the market baseline
Model OpenAI
At roughly 21% market probability, Yes appears modestly overpriced: the qualifying definition requires direct use of force, and only about two months remain. Escalation risk is real, so the estimate is uncertain; verified direct engagement would materially change it.
Watch triggers
- Verified direct use of force between NATO and Russian forces
- A material escalation or de-escalation in NATO-Russia tensions
- Time passing without a qualifying encounter
Why confirmation is still needed
At roughly 21% market probability, Yes appears modestly overpriced: the qualifying definition requires direct use of force, and only about two months remain. Escalation risk is real, so the estimate is uncertain; verified direct engagement would materially change it.
Revisit when
Verified direct use of force between NATO and Russian forces · A material escalation or de-escalation in NATO-Russia tensions · Time passing without a qualifying encounter
Execution guard
Price 22¢ · spread 2 pts · liquidity $116,682. Treat the model view as research and verify it against the live market tape.
Summary
Updated at 10/5/2026, 02:43:09
Uses price momentum and volatility over 6h, together with current order-book depth, spread and liquidity. This is not an AI probability forecast and may differ from the model view.
Price & order-book rules
WatchBest ask ?
22¢Volume (24h) ?
$9,868Liquidity ?
$116,682Open interest ?
$1,266,929Spread ?
2¢Depth imbalance ?
51.9%Momentum ?
-2.3%Volatility ?
0.2%Trend slope ?
-0Reasons
- No directional setup under these rules
Rule notes
- Price momentum and order-book depth do not jointly meet the directional thresholds.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
20¢ 6,708.32
19¢ 21,111.72
18¢ 19,726.31
17¢ 96,262.61
16¢ 1,915
Asks
22¢ 6,110.93
23¢ 22,443.09
24¢ 5,562.37
25¢ 11,646.66
26¢ 400
Price history
Interval: 6h
10/5/2026, 02:19:16 21¢
10/5/2026, 02:21:16 21¢
10/5/2026, 02:23:16 21¢
10/5/2026, 02:25:12 21¢
10/5/2026, 02:27:11 21¢
10/5/2026, 02:29:32 21¢
10/5/2026, 02:31:16 21¢
10/5/2026, 02:33:16 21¢
10/5/2026, 02:35:17 21¢
10/5/2026, 02:37:14 21¢
10/5/2026, 02:39:15 21¢
10/5/2026, 02:40:12 21¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -2% 10/3/2026, 06:09:02
The Yes price appears modestly above an estimated 18% fair probability, though geopolitical risk and limited time-sensitive evidence make the edge uncertain.
Yes ↓ -2% 10/2/2026, 12:05:39
The Yes price appears modestly above an estimated 20.5% fair probability.
Yes ↓ -4% 9/30/2026, 00:06:45
The model places Yes near 23% versus a 26.5% quote, indicating a modest negative divergence.
Yes ↓ -5% 9/29/2026, 18:06:49
The Yes price appears modestly above a roughly 22% fair estimate; uncertainty is substantial, and direct armed engagement or material de-escalation would warrant reassessment.
Related whale flow
All tradesNo related large trades in the current 24h cache.