10/5/2026, 00:07:20 OpenAI
Model stance Watch Horizon
To expiry Current price
21¢
At roughly 21% market probability, Yes appears modestly overpriced: the qualifying definition requires direct use of force, and only about two months remain. Escalation risk is real, so the estimate is uncertain; verified direct engagement would materially change it.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Verified direct use of force between NATO and Russian forces · A material escalation or de-escalation in NATO-Russia tensions · Time passing without a qualifying encounter
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-4% Confidence
52%
At roughly 21% market probability, Yes appears modestly overpriced: the qualifying definition requires direct use of force, and only about two months remain. Escalation risk is real, so the estimate is uncertain; verified direct engagement would materially change it.
10/3/2026, 06:09:02 OpenAI
Model stance Watch Horizon
To expiry Current price
20.5¢
The remaining months and strict resolution criteria, which exclude warning shots, collisions, and many third-party interceptions, put the model estimate near 18%, below the 20.5% market price. Risk remains material; verified direct engagement or a major escalation would change the estimate.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Verified use of force between NATO and Russian forces · Material escalation or de-escalation · New credible reporting on direct engagement
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-2% Confidence
54%
The remaining months and strict resolution criteria, which exclude warning shots, collisions, and many third-party interceptions, put the model estimate near 18%, below the 20.5% market price. Risk remains material; verified direct engagement or a major escalation would change the estimate.
10/2/2026, 12:05:39 OpenAI
Model stance Watch Horizon
To expiry Current price
22.5¢
I estimate the probability near 20.5%, slightly below the 22.5% market price. The remaining window is short and resolution requires direct use of force; recent price weakness is consistent with lower near-term risk, though limited context leaves substantial uncertainty.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Credible reports of direct NATO-Russia use of force · A material escalation or de-escalation in the conflict · Price movement that changes the implied probability substantially
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-2% Confidence
56%
I estimate the probability near 20.5%, slightly below the 22.5% market price. The remaining window is short and resolution requires direct use of force; recent price weakness is consistent with lower near-term risk, though limited context leaves substantial uncertainty.
9/30/2026, 00:06:45 OpenAI
Model stance Watch Horizon
To expiry Current price
26.5¢
The model estimates Yes near 23%, modestly below the 26.5% market price. The strict requirement for direct use of force excludes warning shots, collisions, cyberattacks, and third-party drone interceptions, though escalation risk remains significant.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Reassess on credible reports of direct NATO-Russia use of force. · Reassess if meaningful de-escalation reduces the risk before expiry.
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-4% Confidence
56%
The model estimates Yes near 23%, modestly below the 26.5% market price. The strict requirement for direct use of force excludes warning shots, collisions, cyberattacks, and third-party drone interceptions, though escalation risk remains significant.
9/29/2026, 18:06:49 OpenAI
Model stance Watch Horizon
To expiry Current price
27.5¢
A qualifying direct use-of-force incident remains possible amid the Russia-NATO confrontation, but the strict criteria exclude warnings, nonviolent airspace incidents, and many third-party interceptions.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Credible reports of direct NATO-Russia exchange of fire · A qualifying strike or armed interception · Clear diplomatic de-escalation
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-5% Confidence
58%
A qualifying direct use-of-force incident remains possible amid the Russia-NATO confrontation, but the strict criteria exclude warnings, nonviolent airspace incidents, and many third-party interceptions.
