Yes ↑ +1% 8/3/2026, 12:03:48
No clear mispricing: Yes is near 25% with narrow spread and balanced recent history. The long horizon and binary tail-risk structure make short-term orderbook signals weak versus the market price.
Unified market view
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Hold: Efficient price
Hold
Model edge Yes ↑ +1%
Confidence 54%
Price at model run 25¢ Model run: 8/3/2026, 12:03:48
Live best ask 26¢ Live update: 8/3/2026, 17:45:43
Model gpt-5.4-mini
No clear mispricing: Yes is near 25% with narrow spread and balanced recent history. The long horizon and binary tail-risk structure make short-term orderbook signals weak versus the market price.
Watch triggers
- Yes bid depth exceeds ask depth
- Price has been flat around 0.245
- Long-dated tail-risk remains hard to price
Why not now
No clear mispricing: Yes is near 25% with narrow spread and balanced recent history. The long horizon and binary tail-risk structure make short-term orderbook signals weak versus the market price.
Revisit when
Yes bid depth exceeds ask depth · Price has been flat around 0.245 · Long-dated tail-risk remains hard to price
Execution guard
Price 26¢ · spread 2 pts · liquidity $69,750. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 8/3/2026, 17:45:43
Signal
BuyBest ask ?
26¢Volume (24h) ?
$81,245Liquidity ?
$69,750Open interest ?
—Spread ?
2¢Depth imbalance ?
51.3%Momentum ?
2.0%Volatility ?
0.3%Trend slope ?
-0Reasons
- Momentum turning up
- Bid depth outweighs asks
- Spread within 2¢
Rule notes
- Momentum = price change over the selected interval; positive means price rising.
- Depth imbalance compares total bid size vs ask size; positive means bids dominate.
- Spread is best ask minus best bid; smaller is easier to enter/exit.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
24¢ 6,210.36
23¢ 5,320
22¢ 1,076.18
21¢ 2,851.02
20¢ 2,788.19
Asks
26¢ 5,155.02
27¢ 210
28¢ 210
29¢ 100
30¢ 200
Price history
Interval: 6h
8/3/2026, 17:24:12 25¢
8/3/2026, 17:26:09 25¢
8/3/2026, 17:28:22 25¢
8/3/2026, 17:30:12 25¢
8/3/2026, 17:32:08 25¢
8/3/2026, 17:34:11 25¢
8/3/2026, 17:36:08 25¢
8/3/2026, 17:38:10 25¢
8/3/2026, 17:40:12 25¢
8/3/2026, 17:42:10 25¢
8/3/2026, 17:44:08 25¢
8/3/2026, 17:45:11 25¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -3% 8/3/2026, 06:03:26
No clear edge at current price. The contract is near fair for a distant binary tail event, with balanced price action and only modest orderbook skew.
Yes ↑ +2% 8/3/2026, 00:04:08
Small positive edge on Yes at a low entry price with ample time remaining. Orderbook is tight and the long-horizon binary tail risk supports a modest long position.
Yes ↑ +2% 8/2/2026, 18:03:37
The contract is fairly efficient around 24-25c, and the orderbook/liquidity do not show a strong enough mispricing to justify a trade.
Yes ↓ -3% 8/2/2026, 12:03:55
No clear edge versus current pricing; orderbook leans No, but the contract already reflects that and price action is stale.
Related whale flow
All tradesBuy · No 8/3/2026, 14:52:30
$39,451 75¢
Buy · No 8/3/2026, 14:40:30
$17,250 75¢