Yes ↑ +3% 9/18/2026, 12:00:25
The primary outcome appears slightly underpriced relative to its structural advantage, though the edge is modest and exposed to political and electoral uncertainty.
Unified market view
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Model direction
Model leans higher
Watch triggerExecution state
Needs confirmation
Model edge Yes ↑ +3%
Confidence 68%
Price at model run 77¢ Model run: 9/18/2026, 12:00:25
Live best ask 79¢ Live update: 9/18/2026, 16:59:13
Model OpenAI
United Russia is the strong structural favorite to gain the most seats, and the 0.77 market price appears modestly below an estimated 0.80 probability. Confidence is limited by the long horizon and uncertainty around election conditions, participation, and resolution rules.
Watch triggers
- Major polling shifts
- Changes to electoral rules
- Evidence of opposition consolidation
Why confirmation is still needed
United Russia is the strong structural favorite to gain the most seats, and the 0.77 market price appears modestly below an estimated 0.80 probability. Confidence is limited by the long horizon and uncertainty around election conditions, participation, and resolution rules.
Revisit when
Major polling shifts · Changes to electoral rules · Evidence of opposition consolidation
Execution guard
Price 79¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $831,294. Treat the model view as research and verify it against the live market tape.
Summary
Updated at 9/18/2026, 16:59:13
Model stance
Leans higherBest ask ?
79¢Volume (24h) ?
$1,086,425Liquidity ?
$831,294Open interest ?
$4,670,482Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
57.6%Momentum ?
1.9%Volatility ?
0.3%Trend slope ?
0Reasons
- Momentum turning up
- Bid depth outweighs asks
- Spread within 2¢
Rule notes
- Momentum = price change over the selected interval; positive means price rising.
- Depth imbalance compares total bid size vs ask size; positive means bids dominate.
- Spread is best ask minus best bid; smaller is easier to enter/exit.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
79¢ 25,244.99
78¢ 97,913.63
77¢ 176,269.78
76¢ 140,361.54
75¢ 129,784.6
Asks
80¢ 56,580.15
81¢ 31,506.17
82¢ 29,836.94
83¢ 19,661.5
84¢ 15,532.23
Price history
Interval: 6h
9/18/2026, 16:33:14 78.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:35:10 78.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:37:13 78.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:39:13 78.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:41:14 78.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:43:13 78.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:45:14 78.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:47:14 78.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:49:14 78.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:51:13 78.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:53:14 78.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:54:14 78.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↑ +2% 9/18/2026, 06:00:23
The estimated probability is modestly above the market price, indicating the primary outcome may be slightly overvalued.
Yes ↓ -2% 9/18/2026, 00:00:29
The estimated probability is slightly below the 0.77 market price, indicating limited negative edge despite strong incumbent-party fundamentals.
Yes ↑ +3% 9/17/2026, 18:00:40
The model sees a modest positive probability edge for Yes, making the current price appear above fair value under the specified signal convention.
Yes ↑ +2% 9/17/2026, 12:00:34
The model estimates Yes modestly above its 0.75 market price, indicating limited positive divergence rather than a decisive mispricing.
Related whale flow
All tradesBuy · Yes 9/18/2026, 15:50:39
$158,798 78¢
Buy · Yes 9/18/2026, 15:40:12
$23,400 78¢
Buy · Yes 9/18/2026, 14:37:09
$6,240 78¢
Buy · Yes 9/18/2026, 13:50:59
$20,654 77¢
Buy · Yes 9/18/2026, 13:48:24
$11,123 77¢
Buy · Yes 9/18/2026, 13:43:03
$5,567 77¢
Buy · Yes 9/18/2026, 13:10:38
$6,622 77¢
Buy · No 9/18/2026, 12:20:26
$8,175 23¢