Yes ↓ -4% 9/18/2026, 06:01:24
The primary outcome appears modestly overpriced relative to an estimated probability near 16%.
Unified market view
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Model direction
Model leans lower
Watch triggerExecution state
Needs confirmation
Model edge Yes ↓ -4%
Confidence 68%
Price at model run 19.5¢ Model run: 9/18/2026, 06:01:24
Live best ask 20.2¢ Live update: 9/18/2026, 07:06:54
Model OpenAI
New People gaining the most State Duma seats appears less likely than the 19.5% market price implies, given the party's limited baseline strength and Russia's established electoral structure. Recent price weakness supports this view, though future political developments could materially change the estimate.
Watch triggers
- Credible polling shows a sustained surge
- New People forms a major electoral alliance
- Electoral rules or competition change materially
Why confirmation is still needed
New People gaining the most State Duma seats appears less likely than the 19.5% market price implies, given the party's limited baseline strength and Russia's established electoral structure. Recent price weakness supports this view, though future political developments could materially change the estimate.
Revisit when
Credible polling shows a sustained surge · New People forms a major electoral alliance · Electoral rules or competition change materially
Execution guard
Price 20.2¢ · spread 0.4 pts · liquidity $234,191. Treat the model view as research and verify it against the live market tape.
Summary
Updated at 9/18/2026, 07:06:54
Model stance
WatchBest ask ?
20.2¢Volume (24h) ?
$113,373Liquidity ?
$234,191Open interest ?
$4,446,722Spread ?
0.4¢Depth imbalance ?
-17.6%Momentum ?
-0.5%Volatility ?
0.8%Trend slope ?
-0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
19.8¢ 12.25
19.7¢ 170.2
19.6¢ 336.52
19.5¢ 850
19¢ 1,000
Asks
20.2¢ 110
20.3¢ 268.16
20.4¢ 1,630
20.5¢ 41.07
20.7¢ 1,333.8
Price history
Interval: 6h
9/18/2026, 06:45:11 19.8¢
9/18/2026, 06:47:14 19.85¢
9/18/2026, 06:49:16 19.8¢
9/18/2026, 06:51:12 19.9¢
9/18/2026, 06:53:25 19.9¢
9/18/2026, 06:55:11 19.9¢
9/18/2026, 06:57:10 19.9¢
9/18/2026, 06:59:14 19.9¢
9/18/2026, 07:01:14 19.95¢
9/18/2026, 07:03:13 20¢
9/18/2026, 07:05:15 20¢
9/18/2026, 07:06:14 20¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -3% 9/18/2026, 00:01:15
The primary outcome appears modestly overpriced relative to its likely probability.
Yes ↓ -6% 9/17/2026, 18:01:09
The model places Yes near 14.6%, below its 20.6% market price.
Yes ↓ -6% 9/17/2026, 12:01:16
The primary outcome appears above estimated fair value despite strong recent upward momentum.
Yes ↓ -7% 9/17/2026, 06:01:07
The market appears to overstate New People's chance of leading seat gains.
Related whale flow
All tradesBuy · No 9/18/2026, 04:42:54
$7,427 80.71¢
Buy · No 9/18/2026, 04:05:27
$16,800 24¢
Sell · No 9/18/2026, 00:27:01
$6,440 23¢
Buy · Yes 9/17/2026, 23:01:49
$23,100 77¢
Buy · Yes 9/17/2026, 20:32:48
$5,958 77¢
Buy · Yes 9/17/2026, 19:47:19
$40,498 76¢
Buy · Yes 9/17/2026, 19:26:21
$7,600 76¢
Buy · Yes 9/17/2026, 18:55:16
$5,000 76¢