Yes ↓ -3% 9/18/2026, 12:01:37
The primary outcome appears modestly overpriced at current levels.
Unified market view
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Model direction
Model leans lower
Watch triggerExecution state
Needs confirmation
Model edge Yes ↓ -3%
Confidence 68%
Price at model run 19¢ Model run: 9/18/2026, 12:01:37
Live best ask 17.7¢ Live update: 9/18/2026, 16:59:51
Model OpenAI
New People gaining the most seats appears less likely than the 19% market price implies, given the electoral environment and the party's limited established presence. The recent decline supports repricing, though opaque election dynamics and long time to expiry create substantial uncertainty.
Watch triggers
- Credible polling shows sustained New People momentum
- Coalition or electoral-rule changes favor New People
- Official candidate and seat-allocation information emerges
Why confirmation is still needed
New People gaining the most seats appears less likely than the 19% market price implies, given the electoral environment and the party's limited established presence. The recent decline supports repricing, though opaque election dynamics and long time to expiry create substantial uncertainty.
Revisit when
Credible polling shows sustained New People momentum · Coalition or electoral-rule changes favor New People · Official candidate and seat-allocation information emerges
Execution guard
Price 17.7¢ · spread 0.2 pts · liquidity $278,331. Treat the model view as research and verify it against the live market tape.
Summary
Updated at 9/18/2026, 16:59:51
Model stance
Leans lowerBest ask ?
17.7¢Volume (24h) ?
$107,794Liquidity ?
$278,331Open interest ?
$4,670,482Spread ?
0.2¢Depth imbalance ?
-73.6%Momentum ?
-5.8%Volatility ?
0.5%Trend slope ?
-0Reasons
- Momentum turning down
- Ask depth outweighs bids
- Spread within 2¢
Rule notes
- Momentum = price change over the selected interval; negative means price falling.
- Depth imbalance compares total bid size vs ask size; negative means asks dominate.
- Spread is best ask minus best bid; smaller is easier to enter/exit.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
17.5¢ 35
17.4¢ 140
17.3¢ 50
17.2¢ 70
17.1¢ 133.47
Asks
17.7¢ 322.94
17.8¢ 908
17.9¢ 1,500
18¢ 10
18.1¢ 80.38
Price history
Interval: 6h
9/18/2026, 16:37:15 18.15¢
9/18/2026, 16:39:15 18.15¢
9/18/2026, 16:41:15 18.15¢
9/18/2026, 16:43:15 18.25¢
9/18/2026, 16:45:16 18.25¢
9/18/2026, 16:47:15 17.9¢
9/18/2026, 16:49:23 17.9¢
9/18/2026, 16:51:15 17.9¢
9/18/2026, 16:53:15 17.85¢
9/18/2026, 16:55:15 17.85¢
9/18/2026, 16:57:15 17.85¢
9/18/2026, 16:58:15 17.85¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -4% 9/18/2026, 06:01:24
The primary outcome appears modestly overpriced relative to an estimated probability near 16%.
Yes ↓ -3% 9/18/2026, 00:01:15
The primary outcome appears modestly overpriced relative to its likely probability.
Yes ↓ -6% 9/17/2026, 18:01:09
The model places Yes near 14.6%, below its 20.6% market price.
Yes ↓ -6% 9/17/2026, 12:01:16
The primary outcome appears above estimated fair value despite strong recent upward momentum.
Related whale flow
All tradesBuy · Yes 9/18/2026, 15:50:39
$158,798 78¢
Buy · Yes 9/18/2026, 15:40:12
$23,400 78¢
Buy · Yes 9/18/2026, 14:37:09
$6,240 78¢
Buy · Yes 9/18/2026, 13:50:59
$20,654 77¢
Buy · Yes 9/18/2026, 13:48:24
$11,123 77¢
Buy · Yes 9/18/2026, 13:43:03
$5,567 77¢
Buy · Yes 9/18/2026, 13:10:38
$6,622 77¢
Buy · No 9/18/2026, 12:20:26
$8,175 23¢