Unified market view

Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

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Research boundary

This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.

Decision state

Watch trigger

Hold

Model edge Yes ↓ -4%

Confidence 77%

Price at model run 12¢ Model run: 8/23/2026, 18:00:23

Live best ask 12¢ Live update: 8/23/2026, 20:07:42

Model gpt-5.4-mini

Yes looks slightly overvalued versus recent trend and book imbalance, favoring a small short/lay on Yes at current price.

Watch triggers

Best ask 0.12 vs thin upside
Yes trend down 1d/1w
Orderbook favors No depth

Why not now

Yes looks slightly overvalued versus recent trend and book imbalance, favoring a small short/lay on Yes at current price.

Revisit when

Best ask 0.12 vs thin upside · Yes trend down 1d/1w · Orderbook favors No depth

Execution guard

Price 12¢ · spread 2 pts · liquidity $200,456. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.

Summary

Updated at 8/23/2026, 20:07:42

Signal

Hold

Best ask ?

12¢

Volume (24h) ?

$156,408

Liquidity ?

$200,456

Open interest ?

—

Spread ?

2¢

Depth imbalance ?

26.6%

Momentum ?

-18.5%

Volatility ?

1.4%

Trend slope ?

-0

Reasons

No strong edge detected

Rule notes

No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.

Orderbook

Outcome Yes

Bids

10¢ 65,969.11

9¢ 37,123

8¢ 1,550

7¢ 1,057.79

6¢ 1,121.6

Asks

12¢ 5,025.34

13¢ 3,826.99

14¢ 27,302

15¢ 160

16¢ 25,680.49

Price history

Interval: 6h

8/23/2026, 19:42:13 11¢

8/23/2026, 19:44:12 11¢

8/23/2026, 19:46:12 11¢

8/23/2026, 19:48:12 11¢

8/23/2026, 19:50:12 11¢

8/23/2026, 19:52:12 11¢

8/23/2026, 19:54:13 11¢

8/23/2026, 19:56:11 11¢

8/23/2026, 19:58:11 11¢

8/23/2026, 20:00:28 11¢

8/23/2026, 20:02:13 11¢

8/23/2026, 20:03:11 11¢

Prediction history

Full history

Yes ↓ -4% 8/23/2026, 18:00:23

Yes looks slightly overvalued versus recent trend and book imbalance, favoring a small short/lay on Yes at current price.

Related whale flow

All trades

Buy · No 8/23/2026, 16:43:07

$13,551 89¢