Yes ↑ +8% 9/18/2026, 06:03:04
Yes appears modestly underpriced for a multi-month downside-touch event, though the estimate is sensitive to BTC's current distance from $50,000 and changing volatility.
Unified market view
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Model direction
Model leans higher
Watch triggerExecution state
Needs confirmation
Model edge Yes ↑ +8%
Confidence 58%
Price at model run 12¢ Model run: 9/18/2026, 06:03:04
Live best ask 12¢ Live update: 9/18/2026, 07:06:07
Model OpenAI
The Yes price is 0.12, while the long time window and demonstrated recent downside momentum suggest a materially higher chance of at least one brief BTC move to $50,000. Uncertainty remains high because the current BTC level and macro path are not provided.
Watch triggers
- Reassess after a major BTC spot move
- Reassess if implied probability exceeds 25%
- Monitor volatility and macro catalysts
Why confirmation is still needed
The Yes price is 0.12, while the long time window and demonstrated recent downside momentum suggest a materially higher chance of at least one brief BTC move to $50,000. Uncertainty remains high because the current BTC level and macro path are not provided.
Revisit when
Reassess after a major BTC spot move · Reassess if implied probability exceeds 25% · Monitor volatility and macro catalysts
Execution guard
Price 12¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $185,701. Treat the model view as research and verify it against the live market tape.
Summary
Updated at 9/18/2026, 07:06:07
Model stance
Leans lowerBest ask ?
12¢Volume (24h) ?
$8,835Liquidity ?
$185,701Open interest ?
$12,429,939Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
-64.9%Momentum ?
-8.0%Volatility ?
0.6%Trend slope ?
-0Reasons
- Momentum turning down
- Ask depth outweighs bids
- Spread within 2¢
Rule notes
- Momentum = price change over the selected interval; negative means price falling.
- Depth imbalance compares total bid size vs ask size; negative means asks dominate.
- Spread is best ask minus best bid; smaller is easier to enter/exit.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
11¢ 6,148.61
10¢ 630
9¢ 371.99
8¢ 5,280
7¢ 2,921.69
Asks
12¢ 120
13¢ 24,772.14
14¢ 9,323.86
15¢ 8,652.02
16¢ 29,238.96
Price history
Interval: 6h
9/18/2026, 06:44:14 11.5¢
9/18/2026, 06:46:13 11.5¢
9/18/2026, 06:48:13 11.5¢
9/18/2026, 06:50:10 11.5¢
9/18/2026, 06:52:09 11.5¢
9/18/2026, 06:54:13 11.5¢
9/18/2026, 06:56:13 11.5¢
9/18/2026, 06:58:13 11.5¢
9/18/2026, 07:00:15 11.5¢
9/18/2026, 07:02:13 11.5¢
9/18/2026, 07:04:13 11.5¢
9/18/2026, 07:05:13 11.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↑ +7% 9/18/2026, 00:03:07
The model estimates the Yes probability modestly above the 13% market price, but the edge is uncertain because resolution depends on a distant, path-dependent price event.
Yes ↑ +8% 9/17/2026, 18:03:20
Yes appears modestly underpriced relative to the estimated event probability, but the estimate is uncertain and should be revisited if BTC volatility, price level, or market-implied probability.
Yes ↑ +12% 9/17/2026, 12:03:53
The model sees the Yes outcome as modestly underpriced relative to its estimated probability, despite short-term bearish momentum and pronounced sell-side depth.
Yes ↑ +7% 9/17/2026, 06:03:51
The model sees a modest positive probability gap for Yes, supported by the extended resolution window and recurring volatility.
Related whale flow
All tradesNo related large trades in the current 24h cache.