Yes ↓ -2% 8/3/2026, 12:03:05
Price appears a bit stretched versus the incremental info available; upside is capped near current consensus and downside risk is slightly better than the market implies.
Unified market view
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Hold: Efficient price
Hold
Model edge Yes ↓ -2%
Confidence 72%
Price at model run 83.8¢ Model run: 8/3/2026, 12:03:05
Live best ask 84.7¢ Live update: 8/3/2026, 17:45:35
Model gpt-5.4-mini
Price appears a bit stretched versus the incremental info available; upside is capped near current consensus and downside risk is slightly better than the market implies.
Watch triggers
- Yes near 0.84
- Recent rally already extended
- Only moderate bid depth
Why not now
Price appears a bit stretched versus the incremental info available; upside is capped near current consensus and downside risk is slightly better than the market implies.
Revisit when
Yes near 0.84 · Recent rally already extended · Only moderate bid depth
Execution guard
Price 84.7¢ · spread 0.9 pts · liquidity $65,098. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 8/3/2026, 17:45:35
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
84.7¢Volume (24h) ?
$18,137Liquidity ?
$65,098Open interest ?
—Spread ?
0.8¢Depth imbalance ?
-24.9%Momentum ?
0.3%Volatility ?
0.0%Trend slope ?
0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
83.8¢ 104.99
83.7¢ 504.37
83.6¢ 1,355.32
83.5¢ 13.69
83.4¢ 5
Asks
84.6¢ 24.66
84.7¢ 2,332.93
84.8¢ 200
84.9¢ 527.78
85¢ 215.05
Price history
Interval: 6h
8/3/2026, 17:24:10 84.25¢
8/3/2026, 17:26:07 84.25¢
8/3/2026, 17:28:20 84.25¢
8/3/2026, 17:30:10 84.25¢
8/3/2026, 17:32:07 84.25¢
8/3/2026, 17:34:10 84.25¢
8/3/2026, 17:36:07 84.25¢
8/3/2026, 17:38:09 84.25¢
8/3/2026, 17:40:10 84.25¢
8/3/2026, 17:42:09 84.25¢
8/3/2026, 17:44:07 84.25¢
8/3/2026, 17:45:10 84.25¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -3% 8/3/2026, 06:03:13
The market is liquid and tightly priced, but the strong bullish trend is mostly reflected in the quote, leaving no clear edge at current levels.
Yes ↑ +2% 8/3/2026, 00:03:14
No clear pricing dislocation: Yes is already expensive, recent price action is stable, and orderbook support is balanced enough to avoid a strong entry signal.
Yes ↓ -2% 8/2/2026, 18:02:54
The Yes contract is fairly priced to slightly rich versus the current evidence. Liquidity is good, but there is no clear mispricing large enough to justify a directional trade.
Yes ↓ -3% 8/2/2026, 12:03:17
The market is efficiently priced around 0.80 with tight spread and no clear catalyst; upside seems limited versus consensus while downside is also modest.
Related whale flow
All tradesBuy · Yes 8/3/2026, 06:11:51
$10,000 83.77¢