Yes ↓ -3% 8/3/2026, 18:03:26
No strong edge: Yes is already near the upper end of the implied range, spreads are tight, and recent price action is stable. Any upside seems mostly priced in, while regime-change risk exists but ...
Unified market view
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Watch trigger
Hold
Model edge Yes ↓ -3%
Confidence 62%
Price at model run 84.6¢ Model run: 8/3/2026, 18:03:26
Live best ask 84.6¢ Live update: 8/3/2026, 18:48:27
Model gpt-5.4-mini
No strong edge: Yes is already near the upper end of the implied range, spreads are tight, and recent price action is stable. Any upside seems mostly priced in, while regime-change risk exists but ...
Watch triggers
- High implied Yes price
- Tight spread and good liquidity
- Stable short-term history
Why not now
No strong edge: Yes is already near the upper end of the implied range, spreads are tight, and recent price action is stable. Any upside seems mostly priced in, while regime-change risk exists but ...
Revisit when
High implied Yes price · Tight spread and good liquidity · Stable short-term history
Execution guard
Price 84.6¢ · spread 0.7 pts · liquidity $70,100. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 8/3/2026, 18:48:27
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
84.6¢Volume (24h) ?
$21,250Liquidity ?
$70,100Open interest ?
—Spread ?
0.7¢Depth imbalance ?
-43.7%Momentum ?
0.0%Volatility ?
0.0%Trend slope ?
-0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
83.9¢ 14
83.8¢ 104
83.7¢ 504.37
83.6¢ 639.98
83.5¢ 12.72
Asks
84.6¢ 528.91
84.7¢ 2,258.21
84.8¢ 200
85¢ 215.05
85.1¢ 55.5
Price history
Interval: 6h
8/3/2026, 18:24:10 84.2¢
8/3/2026, 18:26:07 84.2¢
8/3/2026, 18:28:09 84.2¢
8/3/2026, 18:30:10 84.2¢
8/3/2026, 18:32:09 84.25¢
8/3/2026, 18:34:09 84.25¢
8/3/2026, 18:36:07 84.25¢
8/3/2026, 18:38:10 84.25¢
8/3/2026, 18:40:20 84.25¢
8/3/2026, 18:42:09 84.25¢
8/3/2026, 18:44:09 84.25¢
8/3/2026, 18:45:07 84.25¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -2% 8/3/2026, 12:03:05
Price appears a bit stretched versus the incremental info available; upside is capped near current consensus and downside risk is slightly better than the market implies.
Yes ↓ -3% 8/3/2026, 06:03:13
The market is liquid and tightly priced, but the strong bullish trend is mostly reflected in the quote, leaving no clear edge at current levels.
Yes ↑ +2% 8/3/2026, 00:03:14
No clear pricing dislocation: Yes is already expensive, recent price action is stable, and orderbook support is balanced enough to avoid a strong entry signal.
Yes ↓ -2% 8/2/2026, 18:02:54
The Yes contract is fairly priced to slightly rich versus the current evidence. Liquidity is good, but there is no clear mispricing large enough to justify a directional trade.
Related whale flow
All tradesBuy · Yes 8/3/2026, 06:11:51
$10,000 83.77¢