Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
12¢
Yes looks a bit overpriced versus a low-probability baseline; the spread is tight and liquidity is solid, so fading the current 0.12 ask is reasonable.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes priced at 0.12 · Ask depth exceeds bid depth · 1d/1w trend flat to down
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-3% Confidence
59%
The market prices Yes at 0.12, but the long-run geopolitical baseline and current calm price action favor a lower probability of imminent invasion. Orderbook is slightly ask-heavy on Yes, and recent drift has been flat to down.