Model stance Watch Horizon
Medium-term Current price
27¢
The market prices a ceasefire agreement at about 27%, while the long time horizon and possibility of renewed negotiations support a modestly higher estimated probability. Recent sharp gains and elevated volatility reduce confidence; reassess after material diplomatic or military developments.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers A mutually announced negotiation framework · A dated ceasefire commitment from both sides · Major escalation or breakdown in talks
Yes bullish ↑ Edge
+3% Confidence
58%
The market prices a ceasefire agreement at about 27%, while the long time horizon and possibility of renewed negotiations support a modestly higher estimated probability. Recent sharp gains and elevated volatility reduce confidence; reassess after material diplomatic or military developments.