Model stance Watch Horizon
To expiry Current price
16¢
The market implies roughly a 16–17% probability, while the long time horizon leaves meaningful scope for a mutually agreed ceasefire lasting at least 10 days.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Credible reports of formal bilateral negotiations · A mutually announced ceasefire lasting 10 days · Major escalation or breakdown in diplomacy
Yes bullish ↑ Edge
+6% Confidence
58%
The market implies roughly a 16–17% probability, while the long time horizon leaves meaningful scope for a mutually agreed ceasefire lasting at least 10 days.