Yes ↓ -5% 8/3/2026, 12:03:41
Current price looks broadly efficient; small bearish lean on Yes is offset by long horizon and meaningful uncertainty.
Unified market view
Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Hold: Risky tape
Hold
Model edge Yes ↓ -5%
Confidence 63%
Price at model run 23¢ Model run: 8/3/2026, 12:03:41
Live best ask 26¢ Live update: 8/3/2026, 17:45:21
Model gpt-5.4-mini
Current price looks broadly efficient; small bearish lean on Yes is offset by long horizon and meaningful uncertainty.
Watch triggers
- Best ask only 0.23 with modest edge
- Bid depth is much smaller than ask depth
- 6h and 1d history trend slightly lower
Why not now
Current price looks broadly efficient; small bearish lean on Yes is offset by long horizon and meaningful uncertainty.
Revisit when
Best ask only 0.23 with modest edge · Bid depth is much smaller than ask depth · 6h and 1d history trend slightly lower
Execution guard
Price 26¢ · spread 2 pts · liquidity $17,418. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 8/3/2026, 17:45:21
Signal
BuyBest ask ?
26¢Volume (24h) ?
$1,007Liquidity ?
$17,418Open interest ?
—Spread ?
2¢Depth imbalance ?
59.4%Momentum ?
11.1%Volatility ?
1.2%Trend slope ?
0Reasons
- Momentum turning up
- Bid depth outweighs asks
- Spread within 2¢
Rule notes
- Momentum = price change over the selected interval; positive means price rising.
- Depth imbalance compares total bid size vs ask size; positive means bids dominate.
- Spread is best ask minus best bid; smaller is easier to enter/exit.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
24¢ 126.16
23¢ 106.15
22¢ 1,796.5
21¢ 205.6
20¢ 200
Asks
26¢ 10
27¢ 385.91
28¢ 120
29¢ 5
30¢ 100
Price history
Interval: 6h
8/3/2026, 17:24:11 25.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:26:08 25.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:28:21 25¢
8/3/2026, 17:30:11 25.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:32:07 25.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:34:10 25¢
8/3/2026, 17:36:07 25¢
8/3/2026, 17:38:09 25.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:40:11 25.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:42:09 25¢
8/3/2026, 17:44:08 25¢
8/3/2026, 17:45:10 25¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -2% 8/3/2026, 06:03:33
The Yes contract looks slightly overpriced versus the low-probability tail risk of a 1250 ETH print before expiry.
Yes ↓ -5% 8/3/2026, 00:03:45
Price is already near a reasonable estimate for this rare tail event, and the orderbook/liquidity do not show a strong mispricing signal.
Yes ↓ -5% 8/2/2026, 18:03:25
Market appears a bit overpriced versus the low-probability tail event, with No carrying stronger depth and Yes lacking momentum.
Yes ↓ -3% 8/2/2026, 12:03:43
No clear edge versus the 0.24 ask; the event needs an extreme ETH downside tail, which current pricing already largely discounts.
Related whale flow
All tradesNo related large trades in the current 24h cache.