Yes ↓ -4% 9/18/2026, 06:00:30
Yes appears slightly above model fair value near the current midpoint, with bearish momentum and pronounced ask-side depth.
Unified market view
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Model direction
Model leans lower
Watch triggerExecution state
Needs confirmation
Model edge Yes ↓ -4%
Confidence 56%
Price at model run 50¢ Model run: 9/18/2026, 06:00:30
Live best ask 50¢ Live update: 9/18/2026, 07:07:15
Model OpenAI
The market prices no October 2026 rate change at about 50%, but the sharp one-week decline, persistent recent weakness, and heavy sell-side depth suggest the fair probability is modestly lower. Confidence is limited because the meeting is distant and no macroeconomic path is provided.
Watch triggers
- Reprice after major inflation or labor data
- Fed guidance shifts toward a hold
- Yes probability falls below 45%
Why confirmation is still needed
The market prices no October 2026 rate change at about 50%, but the sharp one-week decline, persistent recent weakness, and heavy sell-side depth suggest the fair probability is modestly lower. Confidence is limited because the meeting is distant and no macroeconomic path is provided.
Revisit when
Reprice after major inflation or labor data · Fed guidance shifts toward a hold · Yes probability falls below 45%
Execution guard
Price 50¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $599,688. Treat the model view as research and verify it against the live market tape.
Summary
Updated at 9/18/2026, 07:07:15
Model stance
WatchBest ask ?
50¢Volume (24h) ?
$433,664Liquidity ?
$599,688Open interest ?
$1,657,969Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
-78.0%Momentum ?
0.0%Volatility ?
0.0%Trend slope ?
0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
49¢ 20,160.77
48¢ 57,494.35
47¢ 8,662.53
46¢ 6,465
45¢ 5,424.25
Asks
50¢ 85,393.96
51¢ 548,065.02
52¢ 110,821
53¢ 35,745
54¢ 14,274.01
Price history
Interval: 6h
9/18/2026, 06:46:14 49.5¢
9/18/2026, 06:48:13 49.5¢
9/18/2026, 06:50:10 49.5¢
9/18/2026, 06:52:09 49.5¢
9/18/2026, 06:54:13 49.5¢
9/18/2026, 06:56:13 49.5¢
9/18/2026, 06:58:13 49.5¢
9/18/2026, 07:00:15 49.5¢
9/18/2026, 07:02:14 49.5¢
9/18/2026, 07:04:13 49.5¢
9/18/2026, 07:06:13 49.5¢
9/18/2026, 07:07:13 49.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -3% 9/18/2026, 00:00:21
Market pricing is close to balanced, but momentum and orderbook depth modestly favor a lower probability of no change.
Yes ↓ -4% 9/17/2026, 18:00:20
Yes appears modestly overpriced relative to the recent momentum and orderbook imbalance, though the estimate is uncertain because no current policy or macro fundamentals are provided.
Yes ↓ -2% 9/17/2026, 12:00:22
Yes appears slightly above estimated fair value after a sustained downward repricing, though the remaining edge is small and data is largely market-derived.
Yes → 0% 9/17/2026, 06:00:24
No clear mispricing is detected: momentum favors No change while short-term stabilization and balanced pricing limit conviction.
Related whale flow
All tradesBuy · No 9/17/2026, 23:34:24
$5,610 51¢
Buy · Yes 9/17/2026, 23:34:04
$8,791 51¢
Buy · No 9/17/2026, 23:09:54
$5,100 51¢
Buy · Yes 9/17/2026, 23:09:07
$19,919 50.07¢
Sell · No 9/17/2026, 22:21:07
$10,792 51¢
Buy · No 9/17/2026, 19:12:13
$10,760 50.62¢
Buy · No 9/17/2026, 18:43:13
$11,500 50¢
Buy · No 9/17/2026, 18:27:45
$13,222 49¢