Yes ↓ -4% 9/18/2026, 12:00:34
Yes appears slightly overpriced relative to the recent trend and order-book pressure.
Unified market view
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Model direction
Model leans lower
Watch triggerExecution state
Needs confirmation
Model edge Yes ↓ -4%
Confidence 68%
Price at model run 46¢ Model run: 9/18/2026, 12:00:34
Live best ask 44¢ Live update: 9/18/2026, 17:01:07
Model OpenAI
The Yes price has fallen across every observed horizon, with strong weekly and daily declines, while the order book shows substantially heavier ask depth. These signals suggest the no-change probability is modestly below the current 46% price, though policy data and the distant meeting limit confidence.
Watch triggers
- Yes price recovers above 50%
- Ask-side depth declines materially
- New inflation or labor data shifts rate expectations
Why confirmation is still needed
The Yes price has fallen across every observed horizon, with strong weekly and daily declines, while the order book shows substantially heavier ask depth. These signals suggest the no-change probability is modestly below the current 46% price, though policy data and the distant meeting limit confidence.
Revisit when
Yes price recovers above 50% · Ask-side depth declines materially · New inflation or labor data shifts rate expectations
Execution guard
Price 44¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $349,836. Treat the model view as research and verify it against the live market tape.
Summary
Updated at 9/18/2026, 17:01:07
Model stance
Leans lowerBest ask ?
44¢Volume (24h) ?
$350,854Liquidity ?
$349,836Open interest ?
$1,744,825Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
-30.2%Momentum ?
-8.4%Volatility ?
0.3%Trend slope ?
-0Reasons
- Momentum turning down
- Ask depth outweighs bids
- Spread within 2¢
Rule notes
- Momentum = price change over the selected interval; negative means price falling.
- Depth imbalance compares total bid size vs ask size; negative means asks dominate.
- Spread is best ask minus best bid; smaller is easier to enter/exit.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
43¢ 27,957.17
42¢ 41,800.18
41¢ 33,501.61
40¢ 2,420.01
39¢ 6
Asks
44¢ 81,502.6
45¢ 47,375.74
46¢ 6,119.63
47¢ 14,496.49
48¢ 47,506.46
Price history
Interval: 6h
9/18/2026, 16:38:14 43.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:40:15 43.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:42:14 43.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:44:15 43.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:46:14 43.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:48:11 43.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:50:16 43.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:52:14 43.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:54:14 43.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:56:15 43.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:58:14 43.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:59:13 43.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -4% 9/18/2026, 06:00:30
Yes appears slightly above model fair value near the current midpoint, with bearish momentum and pronounced ask-side depth.
Yes ↓ -3% 9/18/2026, 00:00:21
Market pricing is close to balanced, but momentum and orderbook depth modestly favor a lower probability of no change.
Yes ↓ -4% 9/17/2026, 18:00:20
Yes appears modestly overpriced relative to the recent momentum and orderbook imbalance, though the estimate is uncertain because no current policy or macro fundamentals are provided.
Yes ↓ -2% 9/17/2026, 12:00:22
Yes appears slightly above estimated fair value after a sustained downward repricing, though the remaining edge is small and data is largely market-derived.
Related whale flow
All tradesSell · Yes 9/18/2026, 16:30:07
$5,352 43¢
Buy · Yes 9/18/2026, 15:31:12
$12,571 44¢
Sell · Yes 9/18/2026, 15:29:40
$6,126 43¢
Buy · Yes 9/18/2026, 14:10:24
$5,628 54.49¢
Buy · Yes 9/18/2026, 12:26:48
$5,300 53¢
Buy · Yes 9/18/2026, 12:22:57
$5,300 53¢
Buy · No 9/18/2026, 08:58:04
$5,720 52¢
Buy · No 9/18/2026, 08:57:06
$7,575 51¢