Model stance Watch Horizon
Medium-term Current price
31¢
Yes is estimated at roughly 28% versus a market price near 31–34%. The sharp one-day decline, heavy ask depth, and corresponding rise in No indicate weakening momentum, though the long time to expiry leaves substantial uncertainty.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes rises above 35% · Fresh Fed policy guidance · Inflation or labor data surprises
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-3% Confidence
62%
Yes is estimated at roughly 28% versus a market price near 31–34%. The sharp one-day decline, heavy ask depth, and corresponding rise in No indicate weakening momentum, though the long time to expiry leaves substantial uncertainty.