Yes ↑ +1% 9/20/2026, 00:00:59
The market shows modest bullish momentum and strong displayed support, but the estimated probability is close to the current ask after accounting for uncertainty and spread.
Unified market view
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Model direction
No directional position
Data gapExecution state
Watch
Model edge Yes ↑ +1%
Confidence 42%
Price at model run 22¢ Model run: 9/20/2026, 00:00:59
Live best ask 22¢ Live update: 9/20/2026, 00:15:58
Model OpenAI
Barcelona's implied probability is 21–22%, while recent momentum is positive and the Yes order book shows substantial bid-side depth. However, the long-dated tournament uncertainty and lack of fundamental team information limit conviction, so the estimated edge is small.
Watch triggers
- Sustained move above 0.25
- Major Barcelona squad or injury news
- Champions League draw or elimination
Why not now
Barcelona's implied probability is 21–22%, while recent momentum is positive and the Yes order book shows substantial bid-side depth. However, the long-dated tournament uncertainty and lack of fundamental team information limit conviction, so the estimated edge is small.
Revisit when
Sustained move above 0.25 · Major Barcelona squad or injury news · Champions League draw or elimination
Execution guard
Price 22¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $406,555. Treat the model view as research and verify it against the live market tape.
Summary
Updated at 9/20/2026, 00:15:58
Model stance
Leans higherBest ask ?
22¢Volume (24h) ?
$234,394Liquidity ?
$406,555Open interest ?
$919,451Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
9.6%Momentum ?
10.3%Volatility ?
0.8%Trend slope ?
0Reasons
- Momentum turning up
- Bid depth outweighs asks
- Spread within 2¢
Rule notes
- Momentum = price change over the selected interval; positive means price rising.
- Depth imbalance compares total bid size vs ask size; positive means bids dominate.
- Spread is best ask minus best bid; smaller is easier to enter/exit.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
21¢ 33.47
20¢ 3,990.72
19¢ 103,510.32
18¢ 239,265.36
17¢ 16,628.74
Asks
22¢ 9,939.01
23¢ 10,792.75
24¢ 13,021.09
25¢ 265,450
26¢ 375
Price history
Interval: 6h
9/19/2026, 23:54:17 21.5¢
9/19/2026, 23:56:16 21.5¢
9/19/2026, 23:58:16 21.5¢
9/20/2026, 00:00:25 21.5¢
9/20/2026, 00:02:15 21.5¢
9/20/2026, 00:04:14 21.5¢
9/20/2026, 00:06:10 21.5¢
9/20/2026, 00:08:16 21.5¢
9/20/2026, 00:10:17 21.5¢
9/20/2026, 00:12:15 21.5¢
9/20/2026, 00:14:11 21.5¢
9/20/2026, 00:15:17 21.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyRelated whale flow
All tradesNo related large trades in the current 24h cache.