Yes ↓ -3% 8/3/2026, 12:00:29
The contract is liquid and tightly spread, but the edge is small and uncertain. Price action favors No, yet there is no strong catalyst to justify an aggressive trade at current levels.
Unified market view
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Watch trigger
Hold
Model edge Yes ↓ -3%
Confidence 64%
Price at model run 13¢ Model run: 8/3/2026, 12:00:29
Live best ask 13¢ Live update: 8/3/2026, 17:46:46
Model gpt-5.4-mini
The contract is liquid and tightly spread, but the edge is small and uncertain. Price action favors No, yet there is no strong catalyst to justify an aggressive trade at current levels.
Watch triggers
- Yes price only ~0.13
- Recent Yes momentum is weak
- Orderbook leans to No
Why not now
The contract is liquid and tightly spread, but the edge is small and uncertain. Price action favors No, yet there is no strong catalyst to justify an aggressive trade at current levels.
Revisit when
Yes price only ~0.13 · Recent Yes momentum is weak · Orderbook leans to No
Execution guard
Price 13¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $615,757. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 8/3/2026, 17:46:46
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
13¢Volume (24h) ?
$505,182Liquidity ?
$615,757Open interest ?
—Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
-20.5%Momentum ?
0.0%Volatility ?
1.8%Trend slope ?
-0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
12¢ 3,230.81
11¢ 45,366.17
10¢ 82,539.56
9¢ 30,745.11
8¢ 49,723
Asks
13¢ 82,875.51
14¢ 94,970.97
15¢ 48,766.65
16¢ 87,008.31
17¢ 7,095.84
Price history
Interval: 6h
8/3/2026, 17:21:07 12.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:23:10 12.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:25:10 12.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:27:10 12.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:29:10 12.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:31:09 12.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:33:09 12.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:35:09 12.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:37:09 12.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:39:09 12.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:41:07 12.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:42:09 12.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -4% 8/3/2026, 06:00:24
The market is efficient at a low price, but there is no clear catalyst or trend change in the provided data to justify taking a position.
Yes ↓ -2% 8/3/2026, 00:00:34
Small negative edge on Yes versus current price, with heavy No pricing and no near-term catalyst suggesting a fast move above the threshold.
Yes ↓ -3% 8/2/2026, 18:00:23
Pricing is efficient around a low-probability event; upside from here is limited unless transit data improves materially. The recent move favors Yes slightly, but not enough to justify a clear buy ...
Yes ↓ -3% 8/2/2026, 12:00:50
Slightly overpriced relative to the available trend and current lack of breakout momentum.
Related whale flow
All tradesBuy · No 8/3/2026, 15:06:47
$13,200 88¢
Sell · No 8/3/2026, 14:39:45
$6,433 87¢
Sell · No 8/3/2026, 14:39:05
$6,479 87¢
Buy · No 8/3/2026, 13:08:02
$5,184 87.87¢
Buy · No 8/3/2026, 03:51:14
$7,914 88¢