Yes ↓ -3% 8/3/2026, 12:01:27
Price looks fairly efficient near 22%; orderbook support exists, but recent trend and lack of strong catalyst leave no clear edge at current levels.
Unified market view
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Watch trigger
Hold
Model edge Yes ↓ -3%
Confidence 56%
Price at model run 22¢ Model run: 8/3/2026, 12:01:27
Live best ask 23¢ Live update: 8/3/2026, 17:46:59
Model gpt-5.4-mini
Price looks fairly efficient near 22%; orderbook support exists, but recent trend and lack of strong catalyst leave no clear edge at current levels.
Watch triggers
- 7d price down 3 pts
- Top bid depth favors Yes
- No confirming traffic data spike
Why not now
Price looks fairly efficient near 22%; orderbook support exists, but recent trend and lack of strong catalyst leave no clear edge at current levels.
Revisit when
7d price down 3 pts · Top bid depth favors Yes · No confirming traffic data spike
Execution guard
Price 23¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $317,550. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 8/3/2026, 17:46:59
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
23¢Volume (24h) ?
$124,100Liquidity ?
$317,550Open interest ?
—Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
9.1%Momentum ?
0.0%Volatility ?
0.7%Trend slope ?
0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
22¢ 3,770.02
21¢ 12,657.31
20¢ 56,081.81
19¢ 22,433
18¢ 9,437
Asks
23¢ 8,326.57
24¢ 4,377.59
25¢ 16,439.62
26¢ 38,549.24
27¢ 19,284.96
Price history
Interval: 6h
8/3/2026, 17:21:08 23.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:23:10 23.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:25:10 23.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:27:10 23.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:29:10 23.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:31:10 23.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:33:09 23.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:35:10 23.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:37:10 23.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:39:10 23¢
8/3/2026, 17:41:08 22.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:42:09 22.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -5% 8/3/2026, 06:01:08
Price is close to fair given mixed momentum and no clear catalyst from the orderbook or history to justify a directional trade.
Yes ↓ -5% 8/3/2026, 00:00:48
Current price is near fair for a binary event with long-dated, data-dependent resolution and no confirmed operational improvement. Better to wait for actual Portwatch prints than pay up on momentum.
Yes ↓ -3% 8/2/2026, 18:00:42
The Yes price looks slightly rich versus the current trend and the still-high bar for resolution; orderbook is balanced enough to allow a small bearish edge.
Yes ↑ +3% 8/2/2026, 12:00:57
Small positive edge and supportive orderbook imbalance favor a modest long, though the long-dated resolution and noisy recent drift limit conviction.
Related whale flow
All tradesNo related large trades in the current 24h cache.