Yes ↓ -8% 8/3/2026, 12:01:59
Market pricing appears a bit rich versus the strict resolution standard and the recent price drift favors No.
Unified market view
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Action: Sell
Sell
Model edge Yes ↓ -8%
Confidence 72%
Price at model run 41¢ Model run: 8/3/2026, 12:01:59
Live best ask 37¢ Live update: 8/3/2026, 17:46:48
Model gpt-5.4-mini
Market pricing appears a bit rich versus the strict resolution standard and the recent price drift favors No.
Watch triggers
- Yes trades above estimated fair value
- Strict official-announcement requirement
- Recent downward momentum in Yes
Action basis
Market pricing appears a bit rich versus the strict resolution standard and the recent price drift favors No.
Invalidation watch
Yes trades above estimated fair value · Strict official-announcement requirement · Recent downward momentum in Yes
Execution guard
Price 37¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $55,225. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 8/3/2026, 17:46:48
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
37¢Volume (24h) ?
$77,249Liquidity ?
$55,225Open interest ?
—Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
87.7%Momentum ?
-9.9%Volatility ?
1.5%Trend slope ?
-0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
36¢ 5,341.77
35¢ 376.07
34¢ 4,131.19
33¢ 8,977
32¢ 3,313
Asks
37¢ 65.53
38¢ 159.99
39¢ 442.09
40¢ 451.5
41¢ 333.5
Price history
Interval: 6h
8/3/2026, 17:25:12 36¢
8/3/2026, 17:27:11 36¢
8/3/2026, 17:29:11 36¢
8/3/2026, 17:31:11 36¢
8/3/2026, 17:33:10 36¢
8/3/2026, 17:35:11 36¢
8/3/2026, 17:37:11 36.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:39:11 36.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:41:09 36.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:43:11 36.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:45:11 36.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:46:10 36.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -12% 8/3/2026, 06:01:52
Yes appears slightly overpriced versus the low-likelihood need for a formal official announcement before Aug 15, 2026. Orderbook is somewhat supportive, but not enough to offset the event risk and ...
Yes ↓ -9% 8/3/2026, 00:01:45
The Yes side is overbought relative to the lack of concrete official support. Spread is tight and liquidity is decent, but there is no clear catalyst to justify chasing the move.
Yes ↓ -5% 8/2/2026, 18:01:17
The Yes side has run up sharply on thin evidence, while orderbook is only modestly supportive and spread is tight enough to exit or fade the move.
Yes ↓ -8% 8/2/2026, 12:01:39
Current price likely embeds too much optimism relative to the narrow rule for an official, unambiguous termination announcement.
Related whale flow
All tradesNo related large trades in the current 24h cache.