Yes ↓ -8% 8/3/2026, 18:02:10
The Yes contract looks overpriced relative to the absence of announcement signals and persistent downside price drift.
Unified market view
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Action: Sell
Sell
Model edge Yes ↓ -8%
Confidence 74%
Price at model run 35¢ Model run: 8/3/2026, 18:02:10
Live best ask 42¢ Live update: 8/3/2026, 18:49:55
Model gpt-5.4-mini
The Yes contract looks overpriced relative to the absence of announcement signals and persistent downside price drift.
Watch triggers
- Yes price fell 0.06 over 1d
- Ask pressure is light on Yes
- No is supported near 0.63-0.64
Action basis
The Yes contract looks overpriced relative to the absence of announcement signals and persistent downside price drift.
Invalidation watch
Yes price fell 0.06 over 1d · Ask pressure is light on Yes · No is supported near 0.63-0.64
Execution guard
Price 42¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $58,168. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 8/3/2026, 18:49:55
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
42¢Volume (24h) ?
$85,322Liquidity ?
$58,168Open interest ?
—Spread ?
2¢Depth imbalance ?
57.3%Momentum ?
-4.6%Volatility ?
2.5%Trend slope ?
0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
40¢ 688
39¢ 1,403
38¢ 4,265.24
37¢ 2,179
36¢ 1,158
Asks
42¢ 15.01
43¢ 1,000
44¢ 270.22
45¢ 134.49
46¢ 1,208.45
Price history
Interval: 6h
8/3/2026, 18:24:11 42.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:26:08 47¢
8/3/2026, 18:28:10 46¢
8/3/2026, 18:30:12 46¢
8/3/2026, 18:32:10 41.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:34:10 43.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:36:08 43.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:38:12 43.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:40:22 43.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:42:10 42¢
8/3/2026, 18:44:10 42¢
8/3/2026, 18:45:08 41.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -8% 8/3/2026, 12:01:59
Market pricing appears a bit rich versus the strict resolution standard and the recent price drift favors No.
Yes ↓ -12% 8/3/2026, 06:01:52
Yes appears slightly overpriced versus the low-likelihood need for a formal official announcement before Aug 15, 2026. Orderbook is somewhat supportive, but not enough to offset the event risk and ...
Yes ↓ -9% 8/3/2026, 00:01:45
The Yes side is overbought relative to the lack of concrete official support. Spread is tight and liquidity is decent, but there is no clear catalyst to justify chasing the move.
Yes ↓ -5% 8/2/2026, 18:01:17
The Yes side has run up sharply on thin evidence, while orderbook is only modestly supportive and spread is tight enough to exit or fade the move.
Related whale flow
All tradesNo related large trades in the current 24h cache.