Unified market view

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

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Research boundary

This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.

Decision state

Action: Sell

Sell

Model edge Yes ↓ -18%

Confidence 72%

Price at model run 44¢ Model run: 8/9/2026, 18:03:08

Live best ask 44¢ Live update: 8/9/2026, 21:06:49

Model gpt-5.4-mini

Yes appears overpriced versus the weak catalyst path to an official announcement before expiry. Momentum is negative and orderbook does not show enough support to justify buying at 0.44.

Watch triggers

1d price down 0.18
No side stronger in book
No official end-announcement catalyst

Action basis

Yes appears overpriced versus the weak catalyst path to an official announcement before expiry. Momentum is negative and orderbook does not show enough support to justify buying at 0.44.

Invalidation watch

1d price down 0.18 · No side stronger in book · No official end-announcement catalyst

Execution guard

Price 44¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $73,831. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.

Summary

Updated at 8/9/2026, 21:06:49

Signal

Hold

Best ask ?

44¢

Volume (24h) ?

$213,860

Liquidity ?

$73,831

Open interest ?

—

Spread ?

1¢

Depth imbalance ?

35.3%

Momentum ?

-10.3%

Volatility ?

2.2%

Trend slope ?

-0

Reasons

No strong edge detected

Rule notes

No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.

Orderbook

Outcome Yes

Bids

43¢ 1,796.42

42¢ 3,642.15

41¢ 2,310.3

40¢ 5,124.5

39¢ 5,584.58

Asks

44¢ 1,037.91

45¢ 660.6

46¢ 2,480.38

47¢ 4,187.96

48¢ 450

Price history

Interval: 6h

8/9/2026, 20:41:08 44¢

8/9/2026, 20:43:08 44.5¢

8/9/2026, 20:45:11 44.5¢

8/9/2026, 20:47:08 45.5¢

8/9/2026, 20:49:11 44¢

8/9/2026, 20:51:11 43.5¢

8/9/2026, 20:53:08 43.5¢

8/9/2026, 20:55:11 43.5¢

8/9/2026, 20:57:10 43.5¢

8/9/2026, 20:59:11 43.5¢

8/9/2026, 21:01:11 43.5¢

8/9/2026, 21:02:10 43.5¢

Prediction history

Full history

Yes ↓ -18% 8/9/2026, 18:03:08

Yes appears overpriced versus the weak catalyst path to an official announcement before expiry. Momentum is negative and orderbook does not show enough support to justify buying at 0.44.

Related whale flow

All trades

Buy · No 8/9/2026, 20:27:22

$5,995 52¢

Buy · No 8/9/2026, 17:44:09

$7,684 50¢