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US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

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Research boundary

This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.

Decision state

Watch trigger

Hold
Model edge Yes ↓ -3%
Confidence 63%
Price at model run 68¢ Model run: 8/3/2026, 12:02:22
Live best ask 70¢ Live update: 8/3/2026, 17:45:41
Model gpt-5.4-mini

Price looks efficient near 0.68 with no clear mispricing; modest event risk and balanced order book do not justify a directional bet.

Watch triggers
  • Tight 0.01 spread
  • Near-term price drift is mild
  • Event risk exists but is hard to time
Why not now

Price looks efficient near 0.68 with no clear mispricing; modest event risk and balanced order book do not justify a directional bet.

Revisit when

Tight 0.01 spread · Near-term price drift is mild · Event risk exists but is hard to time

Execution guard

Price 70¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $92,725. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.

Summary

Updated at 8/3/2026, 17:45:41

Signal

Hold

Best ask ?

70¢

Volume (24h) ?

$67,533

Liquidity ?

$92,725

Open interest ?

—

Spread ?

1¢

Depth imbalance ?

6.7%

Momentum ?

3.0%

Volatility ?

0.3%

Trend slope ?

0

Reasons

  • No strong edge detected

Rule notes

  • No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.

Orderbook

Outcome Yes

Bids

69¢ 1,179.07
68¢ 2,674.42
67¢ 11,103.86
66¢ 3,394.14
65¢ 233.46

Asks

70¢ 2,165.83
71¢ 2,465.26
72¢ 3,850.95
73¢ 7,356.33
74¢ 405

Price history

Interval: 6h

8/3/2026, 17:21:09 70.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:23:11 70¢
8/3/2026, 17:25:12 69.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:27:11 69.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:29:11 69.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:31:11 69.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:33:11 69.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:35:11 69.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:37:11 69.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:39:11 69.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:41:09 69.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:42:11 69.5¢

Prediction history

Full history
Yes ↓ -3% 8/3/2026, 12:02:22

Price looks efficient near 0.68 with no clear mispricing; modest event risk and balanced order book do not justify a directional bet.

Yes ↓ -2% 8/3/2026, 06:02:00

Price is near fair value with modest sell pressure offset by deep liquidity and no strong new catalyst in the provided data.

Related whale flow

All trades

No related large trades in the current 24h cache.