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Prediction history

Market #3096413

8/21/2026, 00:02:04 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon Medium-term Current price 61¢

Momentum favors Yes, but the current price already reflects much of that move and the edge is small. Liquidity is decent, yet not enough for a strong directional call.

Note edge/置信度不足,规则判定观望

Triggers 1d and 1w price trend up · Yes bid depth exceeds ask depth · Tight 1-cent spread
Yes bullish ↑ Edge +3% Confidence 58%

Yes is slightly underpriced vs the strong recent upward drift and top-of-book bid support. But the market is already near 0.61 with a tight spread, so upside edge is modest.

8/20/2026, 18:01:59 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon Medium-term Current price 60¢

The market has bullish recent momentum, but the current 0.60 ask already looks close to fair value with opposing orderbook pressure. No clear mispricing to buy aggressively.

Note edge/置信度不足,规则判定观望

Triggers Yes price up 0.315 over 7d · Current ask 0.60 · No has deeper bid depth
Yes bullish ↑ Edge +2% Confidence 55%

Yes trades near 0.60, but orderbook favors No and the recent pullback from 0.685 to 0.59 suggests some overheated momentum. Small positive edge only because price action still trends up on 1d/1w and WTI can spike intraday.