Unified market view

NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

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Research boundary

This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.

Decision state

Watch trigger

Hold

Model edge Yes ↑ +3%

Confidence 56%

Price at model run 26.9¢ Model run: 8/20/2026, 18:00:37

Live best ask 9¢ Live update: 8/20/2026, 23:51:45

Model gpt-5.4-mini

Small positive edge on Yes, but the market already prices meaningful conflict risk and the spread/liquidity limit conviction.

Watch triggers

Yes trades below implied risk
Recent upward trend in conflict pricing
Orderbook bid depth slightly stronger

Why not now

Small positive edge on Yes, but the market already prices meaningful conflict risk and the spread/liquidity limit conviction.

Revisit when

Yes trades below implied risk · Recent upward trend in conflict pricing · Orderbook bid depth slightly stronger

Execution guard

Price 9¢ · spread 0.8 pts · liquidity $79,666. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.

Summary

Updated at 8/20/2026, 23:51:45

Signal

Hold

Best ask ?

9¢

Volume (24h) ?

$958,812

Liquidity ?

$79,666

Open interest ?

—

Spread ?

0.7¢

Depth imbalance ?

38.6%

Momentum ?

-68.4%

Volatility ?

7.7%

Trend slope ?

-0

Reasons

Volatility too high

Rule notes

High volatility downgrades signals to avoid noise.

Orderbook

Outcome Yes

Bids

6.9¢ 2,823.71

6.7¢ 200

6.4¢ 20.1

6.1¢ 1,000

6¢ 89.58

Asks

7.6¢ 7.49

7.7¢ 189.99

7.8¢ 739.62

7.9¢ 839.25

8.1¢ 53.03

Price history

Interval: 6h

8/20/2026, 23:30:11 34.4¢

8/20/2026, 23:32:09 12.65¢

8/20/2026, 23:34:12 6.15¢

8/20/2026, 23:36:12 7.75¢

8/20/2026, 23:38:28 7.1¢

8/20/2026, 23:40:13 7.05¢

8/20/2026, 23:42:13 8.15¢

8/20/2026, 23:44:13 8.75¢

8/20/2026, 23:46:13 9.4¢

8/20/2026, 23:48:10 8.3¢

8/20/2026, 23:50:12 8.65¢

8/20/2026, 23:51:14 7.4¢

Prediction history

Full history

Yes ↑ +3% 8/20/2026, 18:00:37

Small positive edge on Yes, but the market already prices meaningful conflict risk and the spread/liquidity limit conviction.

Related whale flow

All trades

Buy · Yes 8/20/2026, 21:49:13

$7,727 32.98¢

Buy · Yes 8/20/2026, 20:28:43

$5,518 33.46¢

Buy · No 8/20/2026, 17:48:34

$5,905 70.49¢

Sell · Yes 8/20/2026, 16:33:57

$7,211 33.1¢

Buy · Yes 8/20/2026, 15:18:28

$5,415 47.21¢

Buy · No 8/20/2026, 15:00:22

$5,888 66.48¢

Sell · No 8/20/2026, 14:56:13

$10,118 57.61¢