Yes ↓ -3% 8/3/2026, 12:01:21
Slight overpricing of Yes versus my estimate, with weak near-term momentum and decent liquidity for execution.
Unified market view
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Hold: Risky tape
Hold
Model edge Yes ↓ -3%
Confidence 58%
Price at model run 89¢ Model run: 8/3/2026, 12:01:21
Live best ask 89¢ Live update: 8/3/2026, 17:45:33
Model gpt-5.4-mini
Slight overpricing of Yes versus my estimate, with weak near-term momentum and decent liquidity for execution.
Watch triggers
- Yes price at 0.89
- 1h/6h trend down
- ask side resistance
Why not now
Slight overpricing of Yes versus my estimate, with weak near-term momentum and decent liquidity for execution.
Revisit when
Yes price at 0.89 · 1h/6h trend down · ask side resistance
Execution guard
Price 89¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $69,907. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 8/3/2026, 17:45:33
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
89¢Volume (24h) ?
$234,948Liquidity ?
$69,907Open interest ?
—Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
0.1%Momentum ?
0.0%Volatility ?
0.5%Trend slope ?
0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
90¢ 4,287.04
89¢ 12,721.03
88¢ 5,239.66
87¢ 6,944.15
86¢ 4,176.07
Asks
91¢ 4,376.26
92¢ 4,963.61
93¢ 11,458.75
94¢ 7,235.52
95¢ 5,260.26
Price history
Interval: 6h
8/3/2026, 17:21:08 88.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:23:10 88.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:25:10 88.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:27:10 88.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:29:10 88.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:31:09 88.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:33:09 88.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:35:10 88.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:37:10 88.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:39:09 88.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:41:08 88.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:42:09 88.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -2% 8/3/2026, 06:01:14
The market already implies a very high ceasefire persistence probability, and recent momentum is mostly one-sided. With no clear mispricing and decent liquidity, the best call is to wait.
Related whale flow
All tradesBuy · Yes 8/3/2026, 15:24:09
$8,987 89¢
Buy · No 8/3/2026, 13:26:48
$5,134 13.54¢