Yes ↓ -4% 8/3/2026, 18:01:16
Price is already very high with a tight spread, and recent upward momentum may be mostly reflected. No strong mispricing or liquidity dislocation suggests a clear buy/sell edge.
Unified market view
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Watch trigger
Hold
Model edge Yes ↓ -4%
Confidence 72%
Price at model run 91¢ Model run: 8/3/2026, 18:01:16
Live best ask 89¢ Live update: 8/3/2026, 18:49:55
Model gpt-5.4-mini
Price is already very high with a tight spread, and recent upward momentum may be mostly reflected. No strong mispricing or liquidity dislocation suggests a clear buy/sell edge.
Watch triggers
- Best ask near 0.92
- Uptrend already priced in
- Tight 1c spread
Why not now
Price is already very high with a tight spread, and recent upward momentum may be mostly reflected. No strong mispricing or liquidity dislocation suggests a clear buy/sell edge.
Revisit when
Best ask near 0.92 · Uptrend already priced in · Tight 1c spread
Execution guard
Price 89¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $62,248. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 8/3/2026, 18:49:55
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
89¢Volume (24h) ?
$249,829Liquidity ?
$62,248Open interest ?
—Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
-12.8%Momentum ?
0.0%Volatility ?
0.5%Trend slope ?
0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
88¢ 3,541.99
87¢ 4,534.86
86¢ 4,129.49
85¢ 11,015.26
84¢ 213.09
Asks
89¢ 810.38
90¢ 5,383.72
91¢ 5,611.61
92¢ 11,653.2
93¢ 6,852.54
Price history
Interval: 6h
8/3/2026, 18:28:09 87.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:30:11 87.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:32:09 88¢
8/3/2026, 18:34:10 88¢
8/3/2026, 18:36:07 88.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:38:10 88.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:40:20 88.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:42:09 88.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:44:10 88.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:46:10 88.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:48:10 88.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:49:10 88.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -3% 8/3/2026, 12:01:21
Slight overpricing of Yes versus my estimate, with weak near-term momentum and decent liquidity for execution.
Yes ↓ -2% 8/3/2026, 06:01:14
The market already implies a very high ceasefire persistence probability, and recent momentum is mostly one-sided. With no clear mispricing and decent liquidity, the best call is to wait.
Related whale flow
All tradesBuy · Yes 8/3/2026, 17:42:56
$18,283 90¢
Buy · Yes 8/3/2026, 15:24:09
$8,987 89¢
Buy · No 8/3/2026, 13:26:48
$5,134 13.54¢