Unified market view

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

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Research boundary

This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.

Model direction

Model leans lower

Hold: Efficient price

Execution state

Needs confirmation

Model edge Yes ↓ -2%

Confidence 62%

Price at model run 10¢ Model run: 9/18/2026, 12:02:14

Live best ask 11¢ Live update: 9/18/2026, 16:58:36

Model OpenAI

The Yes price is 0.10, while the sharp one-week and one-day declines indicate weakening expectations for a qualifying official termination announcement. The remaining probability is nonzero because policy reversal or de-escalation remains possible before the deadline.

Watch triggers

Official US announcement suspending or ending the blockade
Confirmed diplomatic de-escalation with Iran
Sustained Yes price recovery above 0.12

Why confirmation is still needed

Revisit when

Official US announcement suspending or ending the blockade · Confirmed diplomatic de-escalation with Iran · Sustained Yes price recovery above 0.12

Execution guard

Price 11¢ · spread 2 pts · liquidity $92,712. Treat the model view as research and verify it against the live market tape.

Summary

Updated at 9/18/2026, 16:58:36

Model stance

Leans higher

Best ask ?

11¢

Volume (24h) ?

$75,649

Liquidity ?

$92,712

Open interest ?

$2,272,144

Spread ?

2¢

Depth imbalance ?

38.6%

Momentum ?

5.3%

Volatility ?

0.4%

Trend slope ?

Reasons

Momentum turning up
Bid depth outweighs asks
Spread within 2¢

Rule notes

Momentum = price change over the selected interval; positive means price rising.
Depth imbalance compares total bid size vs ask size; positive means bids dominate.
Spread is best ask minus best bid; smaller is easier to enter/exit.

Orderbook

Outcome Yes

Bids

9¢ 9,169.85

8¢ 8,941.52

7¢ 16,050.79

6¢ 43,834.99

5¢ 18,156.75

Asks

11¢ 4,592.39

12¢ 11,026.19

13¢ 10,963.78

14¢ 12,423.26

15¢ 3,633

Price history

Interval: 6h

9/18/2026, 16:37:13 10¢

9/18/2026, 16:39:13 10¢

9/18/2026, 16:41:13 10¢

9/18/2026, 16:43:13 10¢

9/18/2026, 16:45:14 10¢

9/18/2026, 16:47:13 10¢

9/18/2026, 16:49:13 10¢

9/18/2026, 16:51:13 10¢

9/18/2026, 16:53:14 10¢

9/18/2026, 16:55:13 10¢

9/18/2026, 16:57:13 10¢

9/18/2026, 16:58:13 10¢

Prediction history

Full history

Yes ↓ -2% 9/18/2026, 12:02:14

Yes appears modestly above estimated fair value given sustained downward momentum and the strict resolution standard.

Yes ↓ -2% 9/18/2026, 06:01:42

Yes appears modestly overpriced relative to the estimated probability.

Yes ↑ +1% 9/18/2026, 00:02:11

The estimated probability is close to the market price, with modest bullish uncertainty offset by recent downward momentum and strict resolution criteria.

Yes ↑ +3% 9/17/2026, 18:02:25

The primary outcome appears slightly underpriced, but the edge is modest and recent momentum is negative.

Yes ↓ -1% 9/17/2026, 12:02:50

Yes appears modestly overvalued relative to the estimated event probability, with recent momentum weakening.

Related whale flow

All trades

Buy · No 9/18/2026, 08:32:49

$5,349 90¢

Sell · No 9/18/2026, 07:56:28

$5,815 40.1¢

Sell · Yes 9/18/2026, 06:35:45

$7,744 60¢

Sell · No 9/18/2026, 03:12:40

$5,589 89¢

Buy · Yes 9/18/2026, 02:23:03

$7,418 60¢

Buy · Yes 9/18/2026, 02:23:03

$7,755 60¢

Buy · No 9/18/2026, 02:20:39

$5,040 40¢

Buy · Yes 9/18/2026, 02:14:22

$7,744 60¢