Unified market view

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

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Research boundary

This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.

Decision state

Action: Sell

Sell

Model edge Yes ↓ -8%

Confidence 74%

Price at model run 18.4¢ Model run: 8/3/2026, 12:01:41

Live best ask 13.7¢ Live update: 8/3/2026, 17:46:45

Model gpt-5.4-mini

The current price appears above my estimated probability of a qualifying announcement, so the better trade is against Yes.

Watch triggers

No official end/suspension announcement observed
Event definition is strict and narrow
Price has fallen sharply over 1d/1w

Action basis

The current price appears above my estimated probability of a qualifying announcement, so the better trade is against Yes.

Invalidation watch

No official end/suspension announcement observed · Event definition is strict and narrow · Price has fallen sharply over 1d/1w

Execution guard

Price 13.7¢ · spread 0.6 pts · liquidity $54,538. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.

Summary

Updated at 8/3/2026, 17:46:45

Signal

Hold

Best ask ?

13.7¢

Volume (24h) ?

$119,991

Liquidity ?

$54,538

Open interest ?

—

Spread ?

0.6¢

Depth imbalance ?

-5.6%

Momentum ?

-28.7%

Volatility ?

2.0%

Trend slope ?

-0

Reasons

No strong edge detected

Rule notes

No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.

Orderbook

Outcome Yes

Bids

13.1¢ 1,075.09

13¢ 8.4

12.9¢ 38.75

12.8¢ 134.07

12.5¢ 100

Asks

13.7¢ 116

13.8¢ 212.59

13.9¢ 30

14¢ 1,151.88

14.1¢ 5.37

Price history

Interval: 6h

8/3/2026, 17:23:10 13.65¢

8/3/2026, 17:25:11 13.65¢

8/3/2026, 17:27:10 13.65¢

8/3/2026, 17:29:10 13.45¢

8/3/2026, 17:31:10 13.45¢

8/3/2026, 17:33:10 13.45¢

8/3/2026, 17:35:10 13.45¢

8/3/2026, 17:37:10 13.45¢

8/3/2026, 17:39:10 13.45¢

8/3/2026, 17:41:08 13.4¢

8/3/2026, 17:43:10 13.4¢

8/3/2026, 17:45:10 13.4¢

Prediction history

Full history

Yes ↓ -8% 8/3/2026, 12:01:41

The current price appears above my estimated probability of a qualifying announcement, so the better trade is against Yes.

Yes ↓ -14% 8/3/2026, 06:01:33

Price is near fair for a low-probability political announcement market; the upside from a surprise is offset by the difficulty of meeting the strict official-announcement standard.

Related whale flow

All trades

No related large trades in the current 24h cache.