Unified market view

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

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Research boundary

This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.

Decision state

Action: Sell

Sell

Model edge Yes ↓ -9%

Confidence 78%

Price at model run 14¢ Model run: 8/3/2026, 18:01:55

Live best ask 20.6¢ Live update: 8/3/2026, 18:48:08

Model gpt-5.4-mini

The current Yes price looks elevated versus the low-probability threshold for a formal reversal announcement, and recent momentum plus orderbook depth favor No.

Watch triggers

No best bid/ask near 0.867-0.868
Yes price declined 25% over 1d
1w Yes trend remains weak

Action basis

The current Yes price looks elevated versus the low-probability threshold for a formal reversal announcement, and recent momentum plus orderbook depth favor No.

Invalidation watch

No best bid/ask near 0.867-0.868 · Yes price declined 25% over 1d · 1w Yes trend remains weak

Execution guard

Price 20.6¢ · spread 1.9 pts · liquidity $52,230. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.

Summary

Updated at 8/3/2026, 18:48:08

Signal

Hold

Best ask ?

20.6¢

Volume (24h) ?

$140,971

Liquidity ?

$52,230

Open interest ?

—

Spread ?

2.1¢

Depth imbalance ?

46.1%

Momentum ?

5.6%

Volatility ?

3.8%

Trend slope ?

-0

Reasons

Volatility too high

Rule notes

High volatility downgrades signals to avoid noise.

Orderbook

Outcome Yes

Bids

18.9¢ 10

18.6¢ 209.99

18.5¢ 264

18.4¢ 201

18.3¢ 3,000

Asks

21¢ 10

21.4¢ 14.99

21.5¢ 10

21.9¢ 75

22¢ 1,250

Price history

Interval: 6h

8/3/2026, 18:24:11 19.35¢

8/3/2026, 18:26:08 21¢

8/3/2026, 18:28:09 20.55¢

8/3/2026, 18:30:12 21.65¢

8/3/2026, 18:32:10 21.2¢

8/3/2026, 18:34:10 23.1¢

8/3/2026, 18:36:08 20.3¢

8/3/2026, 18:38:11 19.85¢

8/3/2026, 18:40:21 19.65¢

8/3/2026, 18:42:10 19.7¢

8/3/2026, 18:44:10 19.05¢

8/3/2026, 18:45:08 19.65¢

Prediction history

Full history

Yes ↓ -9% 8/3/2026, 18:01:55

The current Yes price looks elevated versus the low-probability threshold for a formal reversal announcement, and recent momentum plus orderbook depth favor No.

Yes ↓ -8% 8/3/2026, 12:01:41

The current price appears above my estimated probability of a qualifying announcement, so the better trade is against Yes.

Yes ↓ -14% 8/3/2026, 06:01:33

Price is near fair for a low-probability political announcement market; the upside from a surprise is offset by the difficulty of meeting the strict official-announcement standard.

Related whale flow

All trades

No related large trades in the current 24h cache.