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Prediction history

Market #3155068

8/3/2026, 18:05:11 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon To expiry Current price 99.9¢

No actionable edge at current price; buying offers negligible expected value and selling is impractical at this level.

Note edge/置信度不足,规则判定观望

Triggers Current price 0.999 · Tiny 0.001 spread · No detectable edge
Miami Marlins neutral → Edge 0% Confidence 99%

Price is already at 0.999, leaving essentially no upside; the market is fully saturated and the spread is minimal.

8/3/2026, 12:04:50 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Sell Horizon To expiry Current price 99.9¢

Marlins are priced at the ceiling with a 0.001 spread; there is no positive expected value to buy at current levels.

Triggers bestAsk at 1.0 · lastTrade near 0.999 · No upside left
Miami Marlins bearish ↓ Edge -100% Confidence 99%

Price is 0.999, leaving essentially no upside. Market has fully priced in a Marlins win, so estimated edge is negative versus fair value.

8/3/2026, 06:04:30 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon To expiry Current price 99.9¢

The market is effectively max-priced, leaving no actionable edge and very poor risk/reward for a new long position.

Note edge/置信度不足,规则判定观望

Triggers bestAsk at 1.0 · lastTrade 0.999 · No clear informational edge
Miami Marlins neutral → Edge 0% Confidence 98%

Price is already near 1.0 with minimal spread and no independent team/injury/probability edge provided; model cannot justify additional upside.

8/3/2026, 00:06:32 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon To expiry Current price 99.9¢

Current price is pinned near 1.0, so expected value is negligible and execution edge is poor despite high liquidity.

Note edge/置信度不足,规则判定观望

Triggers bestAsk at 1.0 · bestBid at 0.999 · No meaningful edge
Miami Marlins neutral → Edge 0% Confidence 98%

Price is already at 0.999 with a 0.001 spread, leaving essentially no upside and no detectable mispricing from the provided data.

8/2/2026, 18:05:30 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Sell Horizon Short-term Current price 99.9¢

The current price appears extremely stretched relative to any reasonable win probability; with best ask at 1.0 and best bid at 0.999, there is no favorable entry to buy the Marlins.

Triggers Current price near max · Spread is extremely tight · 1d/1w move already exhausted
Miami Marlins bearish ↓ Edge -8% Confidence 93%

Price is pinned at 0.999 with an ultra-tight spread and heavy recent move higher, leaving essentially no upside and meaningful reversal risk from the current quote.