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Prediction history

Market #3155092

8/3/2026, 18:05:05 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon To expiry Current price 99.9¢

The market is effectively maxed out; expected value is negligible at current price.

Note edge/置信度不足,规则判定观望

Triggers Best ask at 1.0 · Best bid at 0.999 · No meaningful edge
Boston Red Sox neutral → Edge 0% Confidence 99%

Price is already at 0.999, leaving essentially no upside and no actionable mispricing.

8/3/2026, 12:04:44 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon To expiry Current price 99.9¢

No clear edge at current price and liquidity is deep enough that the market is effectively fully priced.

Note edge/置信度不足,规则判定观望

Triggers Current price 0.999 · Tiny 0.001 spread · No positive edge
Boston Red Sox neutral → Edge 0% Confidence 98%

Price is already at 0.999 with a 0.001 spread, leaving no meaningful upside; likely just a stale or overconfident market rather than an exploitable edge.

8/3/2026, 06:04:24 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon Short-term Current price 99.9¢

No actionable edge at the current price; liquidity is high but the outcome is essentially pinned at the ceiling.

Note edge/置信度不足,规则判定观望

Triggers Current price 0.999 · Tiny 0.001 spread · No measurable edge
Boston Red Sox neutral → Edge 0% Confidence 99%

Price is already at 0.999 with a 0.001 spread, leaving no detectable upside; the market is effectively fully priced.

8/3/2026, 00:05:19 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon To expiry Current price 99.9¢

Current price is pinned near 1.0 with a minimal spread, so expected value is negligible and upside is capped.

Note edge/置信度不足,规则判定观望

Triggers bestAsk at 1.0 · bestBid at 0.999 · No meaningful edge
Boston Red Sox neutral → Edge 0% Confidence 99%

Price is already near-certain at 0.999, leaving essentially no discernible edge despite recent upward momentum.

8/2/2026, 18:04:15 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Sell Horizon Short-term Current price 99.9¢

Current Red Sox price is effectively maxed out, so upside is minimal and downside risk dominates if the market re-prices.

Triggers bestAsk at 1.0 · bestBid at 0.999 · No positive edge at current price
Boston Red Sox bearish ↓ Edge -25% Confidence 92%

Red Sox are priced at 0.999 with a near-certain market, leaving almost no upside. This likely reflects stale or misaligned pricing rather than an exploitable edge, so the current price looks too rich for buyers.