Back

Prediction history

Market #3155102

8/3/2026, 18:04:52 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon Short-term Current price 99.9¢

The market is fully priced near certainty, leaving no practical upside for a long and little actionable pricing inefficiency.

Note edge/置信度不足,规则判定观望

Triggers Best ask at 1.0 · Best bid at 0.999 · Price already near ceiling
St. Louis Cardinals neutral → Edge 0% Confidence 96%

Price is already pinned at 0.999 with a 0.001 spread; no discernible edge remains and execution is essentially at the ceiling.

8/3/2026, 12:04:30 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon Short-term Current price 99.9¢

No clear trading edge at current price; upside is negligible versus execution risk.

Note edge/置信度不足,规则判定观望

Triggers Best ask at 1.0 · Best bid at 0.999 · No meaningful spread edge
St. Louis Cardinals neutral → Edge 0% Confidence 99%

Price is already at 0.999 with a 0.001 spread, leaving no actionable edge; current market implies near-certainty and likely reflects settled/information-driven pricing.

8/3/2026, 06:04:12 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon To expiry Current price 99.9¢

The market is maxed out near 1.0 with a 0.001 spread, so there is no attractive risk-adjusted entry even if the Cardinals remain the favorite.

Note edge/置信度不足,规则判定观望

Triggers Best ask at 1.0 · Best bid at 0.999 · No meaningful edge
St. Louis Cardinals neutral → Edge 0% Confidence 52%

Price is already at 0.999, implying near-certain win; there is effectively no remaining upside edge and any estimate is dominated by market pricing.

8/3/2026, 00:04:42 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon Short-term Current price 99.9¢

No clear edge at current price; spread is tiny and the contract is effectively at the ceiling.

Note edge/置信度不足,规则判定观望

Triggers bestBid 0.999 / bestAsk 1.0 · currentPrice already near 1.0 · no actionable edge
St. Louis Cardinals neutral → Edge 0% Confidence 98%

Price is already near the maximum at 0.999, leaving no meaningful upside edge and making the market essentially fully priced.

8/2/2026, 18:00:48 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon Short-term Current price 38¢

Price action is strongly bearish for Cardinals, but the spread is tight and Blue Jays are already priced as clear favorites, leaving no clean edge at current levels.

Note edge/置信度不足,规则判定观望

Triggers Cardinals down 11c over 24h · Blue Jays momentum already reflected · No strong mispricing at 0.38
St. Louis Cardinals bearish ↓ Edge -3% Confidence 72%

Cardinals have been sold hard across 1h/6h/1d/1w, and current 0.38 is still below the ask but near recent lows; orderbook on their side shows heavier ask depth than bid support, suggesting continued downside pressure.