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Prediction history

Market #3254048

8/3/2026, 18:04:46 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon Short-term Current price 99.9¢

Current price is effectively maxed out, so upside is negligible and execution risk dominates.

Note edge/置信度不足,规则判定观望

Triggers Best ask is 1.0 · Best bid is 0.999 · No meaningful alpha remains
Jaume Munar neutral → Edge 0% Confidence 96%

Price is already at 0.999 with a 0.001 spread, leaving essentially no detectable edge despite strong market conviction.

8/3/2026, 12:04:24 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon Short-term Current price 99.9¢

The market is fully priced for Munar, so expected return is negligible relative to execution risk.

Note edge/置信度不足,规则判定观望

Triggers Best ask at 1.0 · Best bid at 0.999 · No meaningful upside left
Jaume Munar neutral → Edge 0% Confidence 95%

Price is already pinned at 0.999 with extreme liquidity and a 0.1¢ spread; there is effectively no visible edge to express.

8/3/2026, 06:04:06 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon Short-term Current price 99.9¢

No clear edge at the current price; the market is nearly certain and liquidity is deep, so expected value is minimal.

Note edge/置信度不足,规则判定观望

Triggers Best ask at 1.0 · Last trade 0.999 · No pricing edge
Jaume Munar neutral → Edge 0% Confidence 95%

Price is already pinned at 0.999 with a 0.001 spread, leaving no meaningful upside. Recent drift confirms Munar is heavily favored, so model probability is effectively aligned with the market.

8/3/2026, 00:04:36 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon To expiry Current price 99.9¢

No meaningful edge at 0.999 with a 0.001 spread; price is effectively fully loaded and further upside is minimal.

Note edge/置信度不足,规则判定观望

Triggers Price already near 1.0 · Tiny spread but no edge · Recent move is fully priced
Jaume Munar bullish ↑ Edge 0% Confidence 51%

Market is already at 0.999, leaving almost no pricing edge. Munar is strongly favored by price, but the upside from here is negligible and likely reflects near-complete consensus.