Elise Mertens → 0% 8/6/2026, 00:03:48
No clear edge at current price; the contract is nearly maxed out and liquidity cannot improve expected value meaningfully.
Unified market view
National Bank Open: Elise Mertens vs Anna Bondar
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Hold: Efficient price
Hold
Model edge Elise Mertens → 0%
Confidence 62%
Price at model run 99.9¢ Model run: 8/6/2026, 00:03:48
Live best ask 100¢ Live update: 8/6/2026, 00:59:54
Model gpt-5.4-mini
No clear edge at current price; the contract is nearly maxed out and liquidity cannot improve expected value meaningfully.
Watch triggers
- bestAsk near 1.0
- edge effectively zero
- trend already fully priced
Why not now
No clear edge at current price; the contract is nearly maxed out and liquidity cannot improve expected value meaningfully.
Revisit when
bestAsk near 1.0 · edge effectively zero · trend already fully priced
Execution guard
Price 100¢ · spread 0.1 pts · liquidity —. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 8/6/2026, 00:59:54
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
100¢Volume (24h) ?
$514,093Liquidity ?
—Open interest ?
—Spread ?
0.1¢Depth imbalance ?
—Momentum ?
37.9%Volatility ?
11.3%Trend slope ?
0Reasons
- Volatility too high
Rule notes
- High volatility downgrades signals to avoid noise.
Orderbook
Outcome Elise Mertens
No orderbook data yet.
Price history
Interval: 6h
8/5/2026, 23:28:17 99.95¢
8/5/2026, 23:30:11 99.95¢
8/5/2026, 23:32:08 99.95¢
8/5/2026, 23:34:11 99.95¢
8/5/2026, 23:36:11 99.95¢
8/5/2026, 23:38:24 99.95¢
8/5/2026, 23:40:12 99.95¢
8/5/2026, 23:42:11 99.95¢
8/5/2026, 23:44:10 99.95¢
8/5/2026, 23:46:11 99.95¢
8/5/2026, 23:48:08 99.95¢
8/5/2026, 23:50:09 99.95¢
Prediction history
Full historyRelated whale flow
All tradesNo related large trades in the current 24h cache.