Unified market view

National Bank Open: Luciano Darderi vs Juncheng Shang

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

Share to X Follow alerts Open on Polymarket

Research boundary

This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.

Decision state

Watch trigger

Hold

Model edge Luciano Darderi ↑ +3%

Confidence 56%

Price at model run 50¢ Model run: 8/6/2026, 18:00:44

Live best ask 100¢ Live update: 8/6/2026, 20:06:05

Model gpt-5.4-mini

Small but real edge versus a flat market; orderbook and recent drift modestly favor Darderi at current price.

Watch triggers

Best bid/ask near 0.49/0.50
Darderi price trending up
Darderi bid depth outweighs ask

Why not now

Small but real edge versus a flat market; orderbook and recent drift modestly favor Darderi at current price.

Revisit when

Best bid/ask near 0.49/0.50 · Darderi price trending up · Darderi bid depth outweighs ask

Execution guard

Price 100¢ · spread 0.1 pts · liquidity $523,177. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.

Summary

Updated at 8/6/2026, 20:06:05

Signal

Hold

Best ask ?

100¢

Volume (24h) ?

$1,137,837

Liquidity ?

$523,177

Open interest ?

—

Spread ?

0.1¢

Depth imbalance ?

—

Momentum ?

106.1%

Volatility ?

6.0%

Trend slope ?

Reasons

Volatility too high

Rule notes

High volatility downgrades signals to avoid noise.

Orderbook

Outcome Luciano Darderi

Bids

99.9¢ 429,289.13

99.1¢ 575

99¢ 71,970.71

96.1¢ 1,415

96¢ 176

Asks

Price history

Interval: 6h

8/6/2026, 19:40:13 92.8¢

8/6/2026, 19:42:11 96.75¢

8/6/2026, 19:44:11 94.5¢

8/6/2026, 19:46:13 92.55¢

8/6/2026, 19:48:09 91.55¢

8/6/2026, 19:50:12 92.45¢

8/6/2026, 19:52:26 95.55¢

8/6/2026, 19:54:12 99.95¢

8/6/2026, 19:56:12 99.95¢

8/6/2026, 19:58:11 99.95¢

8/6/2026, 20:00:15 99.95¢

8/6/2026, 20:02:09 99.95¢

Prediction history

Full history

Luciano Darderi ↑ +3% 8/6/2026, 18:00:44

Small but real edge versus a flat market; orderbook and recent drift modestly favor Darderi at current price.

Related whale flow

All trades

No related large trades in the current 24h cache.