Unified market view

National Bank Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Matteo Arnaldi

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

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Research boundary

This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.

Decision state

Watch trigger

Hold

Model edge Tallon Griekspoor ↓ -7%

Confidence 68%

Price at model run 44¢ Model run: 8/7/2026, 18:03:01

Live best ask 100¢ Live update: 8/7/2026, 20:05:28

Model gpt-5.4-mini

Current 0.44 implies more Tallon win probability than I estimate; recent flow and book imbalance point toward Arnaldi, so fading Tallon has a small edge.

Watch triggers

1h price drop in Tallon
Arnaldi book depth stronger
Recent momentum favors Arnaldi

Why not now

Current 0.44 implies more Tallon win probability than I estimate; recent flow and book imbalance point toward Arnaldi, so fading Tallon has a small edge.

Revisit when

1h price drop in Tallon · Arnaldi book depth stronger · Recent momentum favors Arnaldi

Execution guard

Price 100¢ · spread 0.1 pts · liquidity —. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.

Summary

Updated at 8/7/2026, 20:05:28

Signal

Hold

Best ask ?

100¢

Volume (24h) ?

$1,019,912

Liquidity ?

—

Open interest ?

—

Spread ?

0.1¢

Depth imbalance ?

—

Momentum ?

55.0%

Volatility ?

9.7%

Trend slope ?

Reasons

Volatility too high

Rule notes

High volatility downgrades signals to avoid noise.

Orderbook

Outcome Tallon Griekspoor

No orderbook data yet.

Price history

Interval: 6h

8/7/2026, 19:04:10 99.95¢

8/7/2026, 19:06:09 99.95¢

8/7/2026, 19:08:10 99.95¢

8/7/2026, 19:10:09 99.95¢

8/7/2026, 19:12:07 99.95¢

8/7/2026, 19:14:20 99.95¢

8/7/2026, 19:16:10 99.95¢

8/7/2026, 19:18:11 99.95¢

8/7/2026, 19:20:10 99.95¢

8/7/2026, 19:22:09 99.95¢

8/7/2026, 19:24:09 99.95¢

8/7/2026, 19:26:10 99.95¢

Prediction history

Full history

Tallon Griekspoor ↓ -7% 8/7/2026, 18:03:01

Current 0.44 implies more Tallon win probability than I estimate; recent flow and book imbalance point toward Arnaldi, so fading Tallon has a small edge.

Related whale flow

All trades

No related large trades in the current 24h cache.