Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
14¢
No clear edge versus the current 14% price; liquidity is decent and the book is tight, but the event remains extremely hard and the market already prices that in.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Hardcore multi-boss challenge is very difficult · Current price already near the low end · Recent trades show only minor drift
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-3% Confidence
74%
Market implies ~14% while the challenge is still very ambitious: multiple hardcore boss kills, no deaths, same seed, live, and a firm deadline. Recent price stability near 0.14 and heavy ask-side pressure suggest no positive mispricing for Yes.