Unified market view

National Bank Open: Luciano Darderi vs Brandon Nakashima

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

Share to X Follow alerts Open on Polymarket

Research boundary

This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.

Decision state

Hold: Efficient price

Hold

Model edge Luciano Darderi ↓ -1%

Confidence 93%

Price at model run 2¢ Model run: 8/11/2026, 18:00:51

Live best ask 0.1¢ Live update: 8/11/2026, 19:07:48

Model gpt-5.4-mini

Darderi looks mispriced on the downside: recent drift and orderbook depth indicate further weakness, while current price remains above the near-zero implied level.

Watch triggers

1d price fell from 0.315 to 0.015
6h price nearly zero
Thin support on Darderi bids

Why not now

Darderi looks mispriced on the downside: recent drift and orderbook depth indicate further weakness, while current price remains above the near-zero implied level.

Revisit when

1d price fell from 0.315 to 0.015 · 6h price nearly zero · Thin support on Darderi bids

Execution guard

Price 0.1¢ · spread — · liquidity —. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.

Summary

Updated at 8/11/2026, 19:07:48

Signal

Hold

Best ask ?

0.1¢

Volume (24h) ?

$586,600

Liquidity ?

—

Open interest ?

—

Spread ?

—

Depth imbalance ?

—

Momentum ?

-99.8%

Volatility ?

14.2%

Trend slope ?

-0

Reasons

Volatility too high

Rule notes

High volatility downgrades signals to avoid noise.

Orderbook

Outcome Luciano Darderi

No orderbook data yet.

Price history

Interval: 6h

8/11/2026, 18:08:11 0.05¢

8/11/2026, 18:10:11 0.05¢

8/11/2026, 18:12:08 0.05¢

8/11/2026, 18:14:11 0.05¢

8/11/2026, 18:16:11 0.05¢

8/11/2026, 18:18:11 0.05¢

8/11/2026, 18:20:11 0.05¢

8/11/2026, 18:22:11 0.05¢

8/11/2026, 18:24:11 0.05¢

8/11/2026, 18:26:11 0.05¢

8/11/2026, 18:28:11 0.05¢

8/11/2026, 18:30:14 0.05¢

Prediction history

Full history

Luciano Darderi ↓ -1% 8/11/2026, 18:00:51

Darderi looks mispriced on the downside: recent drift and orderbook depth indicate further weakness, while current price remains above the near-zero implied level.

Related whale flow

All trades

No related large trades in the current 24h cache.