Ben Shelton → 0% 8/14/2026, 18:03:22
The market is maxed out near 1.0 with a 0.001 spread, so expected value is too small to justify a trade.
Unified market view
National Bank Open: Ben Shelton vs Brandon Nakashima
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Hold: Efficient price
Hold
Model edge Ben Shelton → 0%
Confidence 99%
Price at model run 99.9¢ Model run: 8/14/2026, 18:03:22
Live best ask 100¢ Live update: 8/14/2026, 18:32:19
Model gpt-5.4-mini
The market is maxed out near 1.0 with a 0.001 spread, so expected value is too small to justify a trade.
Watch triggers
- bestAsk at 1.0
- bestBid at 0.999
- Tiny spread, no edge
Why not now
The market is maxed out near 1.0 with a 0.001 spread, so expected value is too small to justify a trade.
Revisit when
bestAsk at 1.0 · bestBid at 0.999 · Tiny spread, no edge
Execution guard
Price 100¢ · spread 0.1 pts · liquidity —. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 8/14/2026, 18:32:19
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
100¢Volume (24h) ?
$1,286,029Liquidity ?
—Open interest ?
—Spread ?
0.1¢Depth imbalance ?
—Momentum ?
—Volatility ?
—Trend slope ?
—Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Ben Shelton
No orderbook data yet.
Price history
Interval: 6h
No history data yet.
Prediction history
Full historyBen Shelton → 0% 8/14/2026, 12:03:17
The market is essentially maxed out on Ben Shelton, so upside is negligible and execution risk dominates.
Ben Shelton → 0% 8/14/2026, 06:02:36
No actionable edge at 0.999; the market is essentially fully priced and upside is negligible while execution risk remains.
Ben Shelton ↑ +2% 8/14/2026, 00:00:19
Price already reflects Shelton favoritism; orderbook imbalance supports him, but the spread and current price leave only a modest edge.
Ben Shelton ↓ -4% 8/13/2026, 18:00:33
Price has already moved up and the spread is tight, but the available data does not justify chasing the current level.
Related whale flow
All tradesNo related large trades in the current 24h cache.