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Unified market view

US Open ATP: Lloyd Harris vs Stefanos Tsitsipas

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

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Research boundary

This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.

Model direction

Buy No

Model leans lower
Execution state
Confirmed
Model edge Lloyd Harris ↓ -12%
Confidence 78%
Price at model run 32¢ Model run: 9/3/2026, 00:00:53
Live best ask 1.1¢ Live update: 9/3/2026, 00:55:50
Model OpenAI

Lloyd Harris is estimated at roughly 20% probability versus the market summary price near 32%. His probability has fallen across the 1-hour, 6-hour, daily, and weekly windows, while Tsitsipas shows sustained upward momentum. The conflicting quoted prices add uncertainty.

Watch triggers
  • Harris probability stabilizes above 25%
  • Positive injury or form news for Harris
  • Orderbook prices converge with the summary quote
Model basis

Lloyd Harris is estimated at roughly 20% probability versus the market summary price near 32%. His probability has fallen across the 1-hour, 6-hour, daily, and weekly windows, while Tsitsipas shows sustained upward momentum. The conflicting quoted prices add uncertainty.

Invalidation watch

Harris probability stabilizes above 25% · Positive injury or form news for Harris · Orderbook prices converge with the summary quote

Execution guard

Price 1.1¢ · spread 0.8 pts · liquidity $65,322. Treat the model view as research and verify it against the live market tape.

Summary

Updated at 9/3/2026, 00:55:50

Model stance

Watch

Best ask ?

1.1¢

Volume (24h) ?

$749,608

Liquidity ?

$65,322

Open interest ?

$456,605

Spread ?

0.8¢

Depth imbalance ?

—

Momentum ?

-99.8%

Volatility ?

19.2%

Trend slope ?

-0

Reasons

  • Volatility too high

Rule notes

  • High volatility downgrades signals to avoid noise.

Orderbook

Outcome Lloyd Harris

Bids

Asks

0.1¢ 110,454.22
0.9¢ 657
1¢ 21,686.95
2¢ 30,000
4¢ 176

Price history

Interval: 6h

9/3/2026, 00:32:15 22.5¢
9/3/2026, 00:34:15 16.5¢
9/3/2026, 00:36:15 16.5¢
9/3/2026, 00:38:15 17.5¢
9/3/2026, 00:40:14 18.5¢
9/3/2026, 00:42:14 19.5¢
9/3/2026, 00:44:14 13.5¢
9/3/2026, 00:46:10 7.5¢
9/3/2026, 00:48:16 1.5¢
9/3/2026, 00:50:14 0.85¢
9/3/2026, 00:52:11 0.05¢
9/3/2026, 00:53:10 0.05¢

Prediction history

Full history
Lloyd Harris ↓ -12% 9/3/2026, 00:00:53

The primary outcome appears materially above fair value based on the coherent outcome orderbooks and strongly adverse multi-horizon momentum.

Related whale flow

All trades

No related large trades in the current 24h cache.