Yes ↓ -0% 9/18/2026, 12:02:51
The market appears slightly above a conservative event-probability estimate, with weak recent momentum and substantial Yes ask depth.
Unified market view
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in September?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Model direction
Model leans lower
Hold: Efficient priceExecution state
Needs confirmation
Model edge Yes ↓ -0%
Confidence 58%
Price at model run 2.1¢ Model run: 9/18/2026, 12:02:51
Live best ask 1.9¢ Live update: 9/18/2026, 16:57:07
Model OpenAI
Yes is priced near 2.1%, while the recent weekly and daily trend shows sharp probability compression and heavy sell-side depth near the ask. The event remains possible over the long horizon, so the estimated overpricing is modest rather than decisive.
Watch triggers
- BTC volatility increases materially
- Yes price falls below 1.5%
- Yes price sustains above 3%
Why confirmation is still needed
Yes is priced near 2.1%, while the recent weekly and daily trend shows sharp probability compression and heavy sell-side depth near the ask. The event remains possible over the long horizon, so the estimated overpricing is modest rather than decisive.
Revisit when
BTC volatility increases materially · Yes price falls below 1.5% · Yes price sustains above 3%
Execution guard
Price 1.9¢ · spread 0.1 pts · liquidity $122,293. Treat the model view as research and verify it against the live market tape.
Summary
Updated at 9/18/2026, 16:57:07
Model stance
WatchBest ask ?
1.9¢Volume (24h) ?
$33,850Liquidity ?
$122,293Open interest ?
$2,355,248Spread ?
0.1¢Depth imbalance ?
47.3%Momentum ?
-5.1%Volatility ?
1.5%Trend slope ?
-0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
1.8¢ 200.09
1.3¢ 310.95
1.2¢ 460
1.1¢ 5,390
1¢ 1,239.06
Asks
1.9¢ 23
2¢ 17
2.1¢ 56.78
2.2¢ 200
2.3¢ 2,419
Price history
Interval: 6h
9/18/2026, 16:35:11 1.85¢
9/18/2026, 16:37:14 1.85¢
9/18/2026, 16:39:14 1.85¢
9/18/2026, 16:41:14 1.85¢
9/18/2026, 16:43:14 1.85¢
9/18/2026, 16:45:15 1.85¢
9/18/2026, 16:47:14 1.85¢
9/18/2026, 16:49:18 1.85¢
9/18/2026, 16:51:14 1.85¢
9/18/2026, 16:53:15 1.85¢
9/18/2026, 16:55:14 1.85¢
9/18/2026, 16:56:15 1.85¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes → 0% 9/18/2026, 06:02:28
Pricing is extremely low and broadly consistent with the recent bearish repricing, but the event remains sensitive to an unobserved BTC price shock.
Yes ↑ +1% 9/18/2026, 00:02:51
Yes appears slightly underpriced relative to the model's estimated downside risk, though the edge is small and highly sensitive to BTC volatility, time remaining, and the already depressed.
Yes ↑ 0% 9/17/2026, 18:01:38
Yes appears slightly underpriced relative to a volatile downside path, though the edge is small and timing is constrained. Revisit if BTC stabilizes materially or Yes pricing moves above roughly 5%.
Yes ↑ 0% 9/17/2026, 12:02:09
Yes appears slightly underpriced relative to a modestly higher estimated probability, though the recent decline may reflect deteriorating expectations.
Related whale flow
All tradesBuy · Yes 9/18/2026, 16:06:00
$5,835 73¢
Sell · No 9/18/2026, 15:22:49
$5,312 58¢
Sell · Yes 9/18/2026, 14:56:16
$6,021 43.01¢
Sell · Yes 9/18/2026, 14:30:55
$5,964 40¢
Sell · No 9/18/2026, 06:05:07
$5,130 40¢