Yes ↓ -3% 9/18/2026, 12:02:41
The primary outcome appears slightly above estimated fair value after a sustained decline, but orderbook support and headline-sensitive resolution create substantial uncertainty.
Unified market view
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Model direction
Model leans higher
Watch triggerExecution state
Needs confirmation
Model edge Yes ↓ -3%
Confidence 62%
Price at model run 54¢ Model run: 9/18/2026, 12:02:41
Live best ask 54¢ Live update: 9/18/2026, 16:58:37
Model OpenAI
Yes is priced near 53% midpoint, while its probability has fallen sharply across the 6-hour and 1-day windows. With no qualifying official restart announcement provided and meaningful time remaining, the estimated probability is modestly lower at about 50%; renewed government confirmation would invalidate this view.
Watch triggers
- Official Saudi confirmation of current operation
- Price breaks below 50%
- Evidence of partial pipeline operation
Why confirmation is still needed
Yes is priced near 53% midpoint, while its probability has fallen sharply across the 6-hour and 1-day windows. With no qualifying official restart announcement provided and meaningful time remaining, the estimated probability is modestly lower at about 50%; renewed government confirmation would invalidate this view.
Revisit when
Official Saudi confirmation of current operation · Price breaks below 50% · Evidence of partial pipeline operation
Execution guard
Price 54¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $60,975. Treat the model view as research and verify it against the live market tape.
Summary
Updated at 9/18/2026, 16:58:37
Model stance
WatchBest ask ?
54¢Volume (24h) ?
$25,462Liquidity ?
$60,975Open interest ?
$192,842Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
5.4%Momentum ?
-6.2%Volatility ?
0.6%Trend slope ?
-0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
53¢ 25.01
52¢ 1,410.84
51¢ 1,897.52
50¢ 1,353.57
49¢ 485
Asks
54¢ 1,333.26
55¢ 841.42
56¢ 1,057.76
57¢ 889.81
60¢ 516
Price history
Interval: 6h
9/18/2026, 16:34:14 53¢
9/18/2026, 16:36:30 53¢
9/18/2026, 16:38:14 53¢
9/18/2026, 16:40:14 53¢
9/18/2026, 16:42:13 53¢
9/18/2026, 16:44:14 52.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:46:14 53¢
9/18/2026, 16:48:11 53¢
9/18/2026, 16:50:15 53¢
9/18/2026, 16:52:14 53¢
9/18/2026, 16:54:14 53¢
9/18/2026, 16:55:13 53¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -3% 9/18/2026, 06:02:18
The model sees a modest downside divergence for Yes, supported by daily deterioration and sell-side depth.
Yes ↓ -3% 9/18/2026, 00:01:56
Recent downward momentum and strengthening No pricing imply a modest bearish divergence for Yes, but the deadline remains sufficiently distant and the weekly trend is positive.
Yes ↓ -1% 9/17/2026, 18:01:47
No clear pricing divergence is present: momentum is mixed, liquidity is substantial, and the official-announcement requirement creates meaningful event uncertainty.
Yes ↓ -2% 9/17/2026, 12:01:37
Yes appears slightly above estimated fair value after a sharp repricing, but the evidence is limited to price and orderbook behavior rather than operational confirmation.
Related whale flow
All tradesBuy · No 9/18/2026, 03:14:40
$7,858 75¢
Buy · No 9/18/2026, 03:14:39
$7,652 75¢
Buy · No 9/18/2026, 02:37:49
$7,993 70¢