Yes ↓ -6% 10/15/2026, 00:07:56
At 9.5%, Yes appears rich versus a low-single-digit estimate, given Anthropic's funding access and strategic importance. Financing failure or acute liquidity stress would materially change this view.
Unified market view
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Model direction
Model leans lower
Watch triggerExecution state
Needs confirmation
Model edge Yes ↓ -6%
Confidence 63%
Price at model run 9.5¢ Model run: 10/15/2026, 00:07:56
Live best ask 10¢ Live update: 10/15/2026, 00:40:08
Conservative Kelly reference — Unavailable · this model version needs at least 30 resolved samples, Brier score ≤ 0.25, and a lower Brier score than the market baseline
Model OpenAI
A bankruptcy announcement by end-2027 seems unlikely given Anthropic's strategic importance and access to capital, while the market implies 9.5%. Funding, costs, and competitive conditions remain uncertain.
Watch triggers
- Credible signs of near-term liquidity stress.
- Failed funding or a material investor withdrawal.
- Official bankruptcy filing or announcement.
Why confirmation is still needed
A bankruptcy announcement by end-2027 seems unlikely given Anthropic's strategic importance and access to capital, while the market implies 9.5%. Funding, costs, and competitive conditions remain uncertain.
Revisit when
Credible signs of near-term liquidity stress. · Failed funding or a material investor withdrawal. · Official bankruptcy filing or announcement.
Execution guard
Price 10¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $939,807. Treat the model view as research and verify it against the live market tape.
Summary
Updated at 10/15/2026, 00:40:08
Uses price momentum and volatility over 6h, together with current order-book depth, spread and liquidity. This is not an AI probability forecast and may differ from the model view.
Price & order-book rules
WatchBest ask ?
10¢Volume (24h) ?
$9,355Liquidity ?
$939,807Open interest ?
$1,005,891Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
22.5%Momentum ?
0.0%Volatility ?
0.0%Trend slope ?
-0Reasons
- No directional setup under these rules
Rule notes
- Price momentum and order-book depth do not jointly meet the directional thresholds.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
9¢ 180,619.11
8¢ 252,067.87
7¢ 326,582.68
6¢ 23,216.52
5¢ 6,687.38
Asks
10¢ 117,804.93
11¢ 327,739.58
12¢ 22,246.77
13¢ 31,882.9
14¢ 20
Price history
Interval: 6h
10/15/2026, 00:17:42 9.5¢
10/15/2026, 00:19:21 9.5¢
10/15/2026, 00:22:19 9.5¢
10/15/2026, 00:23:33 9.5¢
10/15/2026, 00:25:33 9.5¢
10/15/2026, 00:27:22 9.5¢
10/15/2026, 00:29:22 9.5¢
10/15/2026, 00:32:17 9.5¢
10/15/2026, 00:33:15 9.5¢
10/15/2026, 00:35:21 9.5¢
10/15/2026, 00:37:17 9.5¢
10/15/2026, 00:39:21 9.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -4% 10/14/2026, 18:06:58
The Yes price appears above its estimated fair probability. The estimate is uncertain over this long horizon and should be revisited if financial distress or a major funding setback emerges.
Yes ↓ -6% 10/14/2026, 12:06:33
The estimated probability is about 3%, below the 9.5% market price.
Yes ↓ -5% 10/13/2026, 18:07:09
At about 9.5% implied, Yes appears above a roughly 4% estimate.
Yes ↓ -6% 10/12/2026, 18:08:18
The Yes price appears high relative to an estimated 3% probability, but long-dated financing and compute risks make the estimate uncertain.
Related whale flow
All tradesSell · No 10/14/2026, 23:24:30
$8,351 90¢