Yes ↓ -6% 10/14/2026, 18:07:38
The Yes outcome appears modestly overpriced given the narrow legal criteria and time remaining, though rising legislative pressure could change the estimate.
Unified market view
Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Model direction
Model leans lower
Hold: Risky tapeExecution state
Needs confirmation
Model edge Yes ↓ -6%
Confidence 58%
Price at model run 20.5¢ Model run: 10/14/2026, 18:07:38
Live best ask 21¢ Live update: 10/15/2026, 00:42:42
Conservative Kelly reference — Unavailable · this model version needs at least 30 resolved samples, Brier score ≤ 0.25, and a lower Brier score than the market baseline
Model OpenAI
The model estimates about a 14.5% chance, below the 20.5% market price: a qualifying statewide statutory moratorium is a demanding outcome, distinct from local pauses or limits on incentives. Uncertainty remains because opposition to data-center growth could spur legislation before the deadline.
Watch triggers
- A mandatory statewide moratorium bill advances
- Broad bipartisan support emerges for a statewide pause
- New measures are limited to local rules or incentives
Why confirmation is still needed
The model estimates about a 14.5% chance, below the 20.5% market price: a qualifying statewide statutory moratorium is a demanding outcome, distinct from local pauses or limits on incentives. Uncertainty remains because opposition to data-center growth could spur legislation before the deadline.
Revisit when
A mandatory statewide moratorium bill advances · Broad bipartisan support emerges for a statewide pause · New measures are limited to local rules or incentives
Execution guard
Price 21¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $35,112. Treat the model view as research and verify it against the live market tape.
Summary
Updated at 10/15/2026, 00:42:42
Uses price momentum and volatility over 6h, together with current order-book depth, spread and liquidity. This is not an AI probability forecast and may differ from the model view.
Price & order-book rules
WatchBest ask ?
21¢Volume (24h) ?
—Liquidity ?
$35,112Open interest ?
$36,432Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
-30.1%Momentum ?
0.0%Volatility ?
0.0%Trend slope ?
0Reasons
- No directional setup under these rules
Rule notes
- Price momentum and order-book depth do not jointly meet the directional thresholds.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
20¢ 3,407.8
19¢ 4,741.07
18¢ 2,763.98
17¢ 400
15¢ 700
Asks
21¢ 1,770.84
22¢ 2,316.1
23¢ 16,838
24¢ 100
25¢ 1,333
Price history
Interval: 6h
10/15/2026, 00:20:27 20.5¢
10/15/2026, 00:23:11 20.5¢
10/15/2026, 00:24:20 20.5¢
10/15/2026, 00:26:26 20.5¢
10/15/2026, 00:28:15 20.5¢
10/15/2026, 00:30:15 20.5¢
10/15/2026, 00:32:43 20.5¢
10/15/2026, 00:34:26 20.5¢
10/15/2026, 00:36:22 20.5¢
10/15/2026, 00:38:31 20.5¢
10/15/2026, 00:40:21 20.5¢
10/15/2026, 00:42:14 20.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -5% 10/14/2026, 06:06:34
The Yes outcome appears modestly overpriced given the narrow legal criteria, despite more than a year remaining and a recent weekly price increase.
Yes ↓ -4% 10/14/2026, 00:07:11
The Yes price appears slightly above fair value, though the gap is modest and policy pressure could build before 2027.
Yes ↓ -4% 10/13/2026, 12:09:37
The Yes price appears modestly above fair value given the narrow statutory resolution criteria, but policy pressure and the remaining time make the estimate uncertain.
Yes ↑ +3% 10/13/2026, 06:06:42
The market appears slightly below estimated fair value, though confidence is limited by the strict legal criteria and lack of clear legislative evidence.
Related whale flow
All tradesNo related large trades in the current 24h cache.