Unified market view

Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

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Research boundary

This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.

Model direction

Model leans lower

Data gap

Execution state

Needs confirmation

Model edge Yes ↓ -6%

Confidence 57%

Price at model run 29.5¢ Model run: 10/3/2026, 06:03:54

Live best ask 33¢ Live update: 10/3/2026, 21:53:31

Conservative Kelly reference — Unavailable · the prediction snapshot is stale

Model OpenAI

Model output exists, but it is stale and should not guide a current view.

Watch triggers

Official felony charge or indictment
Credible report of active prosecution
No charges as the deadline approaches

Why confirmation is still needed

Model output exists, but it is stale and should not guide a current view.

Revisit when

Official felony charge or indictment · Credible report of active prosecution · No charges as the deadline approaches

Execution guard

Price 33¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $45,059. Treat the model view as research and verify it against the live market tape.

Summary

Updated at 10/3/2026, 21:53:31

Uses price momentum and volatility over 6h, together with current order-book depth, spread and liquidity. This is not an AI probability forecast and may differ from the model view.

Price & order-book rules

Leans lower

Best ask ?

33¢

Volume (24h) ?

$202,866

Liquidity ?

$45,059

Open interest ?

$65,016

Spread ?

1¢

Depth imbalance ?

-14.1%

Momentum ?

-5.8%

Volatility ?

0.3%

Trend slope ?

-0

Reasons

Momentum turning down
Ask depth outweighs bids
Spread within 2¢

Rule notes

Momentum = price change over the selected interval; negative means price falling.
Depth imbalance compares total bid size vs ask size; negative means asks dominate.
Spread is best ask minus best bid; smaller is easier to enter/exit.

Orderbook

Outcome Yes

Bids

32¢ 3,697.78

31¢ 12,333.1

30¢ 10,241.47

29¢ 534

28¢ 16

Asks

33¢ 2,187.17

34¢ 11,843.84

35¢ 9,893.54

36¢ 8,577.77

37¢ 3,100

Price history

Interval: 6h

10/3/2026, 21:32:29 32.5¢

10/3/2026, 21:34:30 32.5¢

10/3/2026, 21:36:36 32.5¢

10/3/2026, 21:38:14 32.5¢

10/3/2026, 21:40:14 32.5¢

10/3/2026, 21:42:18 32.5¢

10/3/2026, 21:44:18 32.5¢

10/3/2026, 21:46:17 32.5¢

10/3/2026, 21:48:17 32.5¢

10/3/2026, 21:50:14 32.5¢

10/3/2026, 21:52:14 32.5¢

10/3/2026, 21:53:12 32.5¢

Prediction history

Full history

Yes ↓ -6% 10/3/2026, 06:03:54

The Yes price appears somewhat high relative to the low base rate of felony charges following a civil allegation and the short remaining window.

Related whale flow

All trades

Sell · No 10/3/2026, 10:10:38

$10,780 65¢