Yes ↓ -6% 10/14/2026, 18:08:04
At roughly 28.5%, the market appears to overstate the near-term chance of a qualifying charge; a civil filing is not a criminal charge, and little time remains.
Unified market view
Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Model direction
Model leans lower
Watch triggerExecution state
Needs confirmation
Model edge Yes ↓ -6%
Confidence 57%
Price at model run 28.5¢ Model run: 10/14/2026, 18:08:04
Live best ask 29¢ Live update: 10/15/2026, 00:38:44
Conservative Kelly reference — Unavailable · this model version needs at least 30 resolved samples, Brier score ≤ 0.25, and a lower Brier score than the market baseline
Model OpenAI
The civil complaint names seven defendants, but allegations alone do not imply criminal charges; the alleged 2024 event and short remaining window limit the chance of a felony sex charge by Jan. 31, 2027. The group size adds some upside risk, but 28.5% looks modestly high.
Watch triggers
- Official felony charge or indictment
- Authorities announce a criminal investigation
- Credible reporting on charging decisions
Why confirmation is still needed
The civil complaint names seven defendants, but allegations alone do not imply criminal charges; the alleged 2024 event and short remaining window limit the chance of a felony sex charge by Jan. 31, 2027. The group size adds some upside risk, but 28.5% looks modestly high.
Revisit when
Official felony charge or indictment · Authorities announce a criminal investigation · Credible reporting on charging decisions
Execution guard
Price 29¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $51,387. Treat the model view as research and verify it against the live market tape.
Summary
Updated at 10/15/2026, 00:38:44
Uses price momentum and volatility over 6h, together with current order-book depth, spread and liquidity. This is not an AI probability forecast and may differ from the model view.
Price & order-book rules
WatchBest ask ?
29¢Volume (24h) ?
$1,230Liquidity ?
$51,387Open interest ?
$66,599Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
17.4%Momentum ?
0.0%Volatility ?
0.0%Trend slope ?
0Reasons
- No directional setup under these rules
Rule notes
- Price momentum and order-book depth do not jointly meet the directional thresholds.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
28¢ 3,444.11
27¢ 16,296.12
26¢ 36,727
25¢ 9,555.56
24¢ 32
Asks
29¢ 37,515.4
30¢ 3,620.87
31¢ 3,328
32¢ 1,892.92
37¢ 100
Price history
Interval: 6h
10/15/2026, 00:16:33 28.5¢
10/15/2026, 00:18:32 28.5¢
10/15/2026, 00:20:28 28.5¢
10/15/2026, 00:23:13 28.5¢
10/15/2026, 00:24:21 28.5¢
10/15/2026, 00:26:28 28.5¢
10/15/2026, 00:28:16 28.5¢
10/15/2026, 00:30:18 28.5¢
10/15/2026, 00:32:44 28.5¢
10/15/2026, 00:34:28 28.5¢
10/15/2026, 00:36:23 28.5¢
10/15/2026, 00:38:32 28.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -8% 10/13/2026, 18:08:25
The Yes price appears above the estimated probability, though the estimate is uncertain and the civil allegations could prompt criminal action.
Yes ↓ -6% 10/3/2026, 06:03:54
The Yes price appears somewhat high relative to the low base rate of felony charges following a civil allegation and the short remaining window.
Related whale flow
All tradesNo related large trades in the current 24h cache.